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A 6-10 New Orleans Saints squad visits the 7-9 Atlanta Falcons in the regular season finale. Both teams are ending the year on a roll, with the Saints winning four consecutive games and the Falcons winners of three straight. In the first matchup between these two, Atlanta won by a decisive margin of 24-10 in New Orleans back in November.
Rookie quarterback Tyler Shough has led a resurgent Saints offense that's made a ton of key plays in recent weeks. The offense ranks just 23rd in total yardage but has produced far better than that since Shough took over as starter in Week 9. They'll face an Atlanta defense that's been vulnerable in several areas, but deceivingly ranking 14th overall. The New Orleans offense is a battered heading into this game, missing most of their skill position contributors. Still, the Saints actually mustered a running attack in last week's victory over Tennessee. Can they do it again to reduce some of the onus on Shough against Atlanta?
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Falcons Run Defense
127.4 yards per game (26th)
4.6 per carry (26th)
11 touchdowns (4th)
Atlanta has held only four opponents to under 100 yards on the ground, but has shown some improvement against the run down the stretch. On the year, they've allowed just two 100-yard rushers but seven more players to gain at least 60 rushing yards. Of course, one of those was a 244-yard outing to Jonathan Taylor of the Indianapolis Colts.Former Saint Kaden Elliss leads the Falcons with 101 tackles, including 57 solo stops and 10 for loss. The athletic Divine Deablo returns to the lineup to complement the physical Elliss and give the Falcons a very good duo at linebacker. Along the edge, rookies James Pearce and Jalon Walker along with veteran Leonard Floyd are more pass rushers than run stoppers, making Atlanta a little vulnerable outside. However, Walker has shown some growth against the run and edge rusher Arnold Ebikete is also solid in that area.
Defensive tackle Brandon Dorlus hasn't practiced all week with a hamstring injury, but is listed as a game-day decision with some expecting him to suit up. Dorlus leads the Falcons with 11 tackles for loss. He's among an athletic and active group of defensive linemen that includes Ruke Orhorhoro, LaCale London, and former Saint David Onyemata. It's a group that has a combined 28 tackles for negative yardage.
Atlanta has a terrific tandem of playmakers at safety. Jessie Bates is one of the highest regarded in the league at the position and is second on the team with 95 tackles. Right behind him is rookie Xavier Watts with 89 stops. Both players are tremendous in coverage, but can also step down into the box against the run effectively.
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Saints Running Game
93.4 yards per game (30th)
3.7 per carry (31st)
8 touchdowns (29th)
New Orleans has ranked near the bottom of the league in every rushing category most of the season. The running game became all but obsolete when Alvin Kamara, Kendre Miller, and Devin Neal were all lost due to injury. However, it did show some signs of life last week against the Titans.
Audric Estime muscled his way to 94 rushing yards at Tennessee. That included a critical 32-yard touchdown run. Estime is best along the edge and elusive in space. However, he also showed some surprising power against the Titans. He had to, as most of his yardage came after contact on sheer effort because of pathetic interior blocking in front of him, an ongoing problem all season.
Right guard Cesar Ruiz (ankle) is expected to be back in the starting lineup, but that isn't necessarily a good thing. Left guard Dillon Radunz (knee) is also expected to play despite being limited in practice this week. Both need to step up their play significantly for any chance at rushing success. On the outside, tackles Kelvin Banks and Taliese Fuaga have been strong, but the inside has performed so poorly that off-tackle plays sometimes don't even have an opportunity to develop.
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Aside from Estime, other rushing threats could come from Taysom Hill or Evan Hull. Hill isn't what he used to be, but may still be able to provide a spark. Hull is an inside runner that will be used as a change of pace. The Saints may also rely on the underrated legs of Tyler Shough, who has enough athleticism to pick up key yardage as a runner. When the Saints and Falcons met in November, New Orleans managed only 78 yards rushing and a pathetic 2.8 per carry. In this one, Shough will be without wide receivers Chris Olave, Devaughn Vele, and Mason Tipton. Simply put, the Saints must find some way to manufacture a better running game if they are to defeat Atlanta for their fifth win in a row.
This article originally appeared on Saints Wire: Saints-Falcons preview: Audric Estime must set the tone in Week 18
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