Fiorentina vs AC Milan: Preview

Fresh off the worst-refereed match of the Serie A season, Fiorentina returns home to take on scudetto challengers AC Milan. The 18th-place Viola have a chance to make it 3 straight in the league without a loss for the first time this season but the Rossoneri; a win could thrust them out of the relegation zone with some help from Hellas Veroa and Genoa. The visitors, on the other hand, are 3 points behind Inter Milan for the top spot and haven’t lost since their opening day shocker against Cremonese, although they needed a stoppage time equalizer for a point against the Grifone on Thursday and have looked a bit more fragile than their position suggests.

The match will be played on Sunday, 11 January 2026, at 14:00 GMT/9:00 AM EST, at the Stadio Artemio Franchi in beautiful Firenze. It’s fully winter in the city although at least the clouds should break, giving us a crisp and sunny day with none of the rain and slush that’s been hammering the city of late. The temperatures won’t even drop down to freezing but you can still expect everyone in the stands to be bundled all the way up.

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Three things to watch for

1. Breaking down the Milan defense

We’ve seen Max Allegri’s oeuvre over the past decade and a half and know what to expect: a deep block, a stubborn refusal to be drawn out (lowest PPDA in Serie A), eleven players who know their assignments by heart, and a nigh-impregnable shape out of possession. The troll-faced mister has faced a lot of criticism over the years for his dour approach going forward but nobody’s ever doubted his ability to organize and inspire a defense.

Fiorentina trying to unlock an Allegri team is something like trying to knock down the Theodosian walls with a fart. Even with Fikayo Tomori suspended, Koni de Winter is too good a player to pick on. The only guy in the team who’s not a plus defender is Luka Modrić and his experience mitigates his athletic limitations. The rest of the side is smart, disciplined veterans who aren’t prone to mistakes.

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Especially with Moise Kean struggling for fitness, I’m not sure how Paolo Vanoli will approach this. The good news is that Milan won’t press high up, so Fiorentina shouldn’t turn the ball over in its own half time as often as usual. Albert Guðmundsson will do his usual thing (not that I trust him to break down this defense) but the Viola will need some magic beans to topple this Rossonero giant, as well as a lot of luck, and I worry that they used it all up against Lazio on Wednesday.

2. Personnel rotation

At about minute 70’ against Lazio, Nicolò Fagioli made a really bad pass on the edge of his own box, then overdribbled and had to chop down Mattia Zaccagni, getting himself booked. He was Fiorentina’s best player in the game so these aren’t criticisms, but I’m pretty sure he was completely out of gas, having played 90 tough minutes against Cremonese at the weekend. Throw in Kean’s injury, Gosens recent return to health, and several other guys—Dodô, Rolando Mandragora, Cher Ndour, Fabiano Parisi—getting through a lot of miles and Vanoli may turn to his bench.

I doubt that Marco Brescianini is ready to go into the XI but he might feature as a substitute. Luca Ranieri, Simon Sohm, and Niccolò Fortini all have a chance to play a role in this one. Between the potential for exhaustion and the quality of the opposition, though, I have to wonder if Vanoli’s going to rest some of his stars here on the basis that Milan would beat Fiorentina 10 out of 10 times right now. Sometimes a scheduled loss isn’t a terrible thing, although that’s probably the wrong message to send to a team that’s floundering like this one.

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3. Defending set pieces

Fiorentina has conceded 6 goals from set pieces, which is the worst mark in Serie A. The only surprising thing about that statistic is that 6 feels like an awfully small number if you’ve watched these bozos. I have no idea what’s going on with these guys but every time the whistle goes and the opposing centerbacks trot forward, the entire Viola XI switches its brain off.

After his first game in charge—2-2 at Genoa—Vanoli talked about how he hadn’t gotten to set pieces in his single training session. I was sympathetic; given the magnitude of his task, he couldn’t very well fix everything in an afternoon. At this point, though, it’s pretty clear that whatever (if anything) he’s doing to deal with opponents’ free kicks and corners isn’t working. Shipping an extra dozen goals from set pieces is a great way to ensure relegation.

Possible lineups

Ted’s Memorial Blind Guess Department

One of these teams is 3 points from the top of the table and the other is 3 points from the bottom, so it makes sense that the bookies have Milan as the big favorites, although the line’s a bit slimmer than I’d have expected; I wouldn’t be shocked if the betting houses had pushed it Fiorentina’s way to slide some money that direction. The clever bet is going over 2.5 total goals: both sides have surpassed that number in over half their games this season and, give the shortcomings the Viola have at the back, we could be in for some goals.

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Anyways, I’ll predict the exact same 2-1 win for the good guys as I predict in every single one of these. Let’s say it’s Roberto Piccoli gets one after Mike Maignan punts the ball off the back of his head and it loops back into the net, Luca Ranieri pops up on the back post at a corner and puts one away, and whoever’s the biggest Milan defender gets one back from a corner; I guess that means Strahinja Pavlović.

Forza Viola!