Rice vs Texas State Prediction, Picks & Odds for January 2 — Armed Forces Bowl

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The last day of bowl season kicks off on Tuesday morning in Fort Worth, TX, as the Rice Owls face the Texas State Bobcats in the Armed Forces Bowl at Amon G. Carter Stadium.

Rice is one of three 5-7 teams featuring in a bowl game, and my Rice vs. Texas State predictions believe the Owls are up against it, facing a quality Texas State team that is better than its 6-6 record indicates.

Read on for my college football picks for Friday, January 2.

Rice vs Texas State predictions for the Armed Forces Bowl

Who will win the Armed Forces Bowl?

Texas State will win this game and move to 7-6. The Bobcats suffered many close and heartbreaking defeats this season, but they’re still a solid team headed in the right direction under G.J. Kinne. This isn’t the kind of squad that has any business flirting with a losing record, whereas Rice is guaranteed to finish below .500.

Rice vs Texas State best bet: Texas State -14.5 (-104)

The Rice Owls arrive in bowl season thanks to their APR Score and not anything that they’ve done on the football field. They clawed their way to five wins, but Scott Abell’s squad still has a lot of work to do before it can be considered a quality football team.

The Texas State Bobcats, on the other hand, have much more impressive metrics than you’d expect from a 6-6 team playing in the Group of 5.

The offense ranks Top 10 in EPA per play, led by star quarterback Brad Jackson (3,742 total yards, 34 TDs), workhorse running back Lincoln Pare (1,328 scrimmage yards, 13 TDs), and star receivers Beau Sparks and Chris Dawn Jr. (combined 2,044 yards, 11 TDs) behind a quality offensive line.

That potent unit will be close to full strength for this bowl game with no announced opt-outs as of December 31. They should exploit a beatable Rice defense that allowed more explosive plays than any other team in the country and checks in at 118th in EPA per play.

On the flip side, Rice will be without starting quarterback Chase Jenkins, and perhaps two of its top skill position players (wideout Drayden Dickmann and running back Daelen Alexander).

This unit was already bad (114th in success rate) and wants to keep the ball on the ground (fourth in rush rate), which might prove difficult against a Texas State defense ranking 55th in rush defense grade per PFF.

Rice vs Texas State same-game parlay

This is one of the highest totals we’ve seen in a Rice game all season, so my natural inclination is to bite the bullet and play the Under. The Owls play at a very slow pace (118th in snaps per minute) and simply aren’t built to play from behind or get into a shootout, which the game script calls for.

The defense will give up plenty, but that probably happens early in the ball game. Kinne will simply want to get his team out of Fort Worth with a victory, and can likely do so by a sizable margin even if he has his team cool the jets in the second half.

Rice vs Texas State SGP

Texas State -14.5
Under 56.5

Rice vs Texas State odds

Spread: Rice +14.5 | Texas State -14.5
Moneyline: Rice +560 | Texas State -800
Over/Under: Over 56.5 | Under 56.5

Rice vs Texas State trend to know

Rice is 2-5 ATS in its last seven games. Find more college football betting trends for Rice vs Texas State.

How to watch Rice vs Texas State

Location	Amon G. Carter Stadium, Fort Worth, TX
Date	Friday, January 2, 2026
Kickoff	1:00 p.m. ET
TV	ESPN

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Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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