Stats what needs to happen

19 hours ago 1

The Denver Broncos are one win away from the #1 seed in the AFC. They only need to beat the Los Angeles Chargers who will be resting some starters since the game will not have much of an effect on their playoff seeding.

They will be the 5th, 6th or 7th seed depending on the wins of losses of the Texans and the Bills in the final week of the regular season. Their starting QB, RB and LG will all be resting during the game to heal nagging injuries. This will make it easier to beat the Chargers, although the Broncos struggled in KC to beat the Chiefs who started their 3rd string QB, who was making his first NFL start. That was on a short week in KC and featured a bevy of very suspect calls by Bill Vinovich’s crew. It also featured no penalties called on KC until the final minute of the game.

The Broncos could still get the #1 seed with a loss, but that would mean that the Dolphins would have to beat the Patriots in Poxboro. That is not very probable with a rookie QB making his third start.

The Broncos have only won four times in KC in December in team history. They are now 4-22 their during that month.

The previous three wins came in 1994, 2009 and 2013. Let’s hope this isn’t our only win there in December this decade since we have only been getting one per decade since the 90s.

Statistically the Bronco offense is 14th in scoring, 12th in rushing (YPC), 13th in ANYA, 10th in 3rd down conversion %, 10th in RZTD%, and 19th in drive score %.

The Bronco defense is 4th in scoring, 1st in sacks and pressure rate, 3rd in YPC allowed, 4th in ANYA, 2nd in 3rd down conversion %, 2nd in RZTD%, and 8th in scoring %.

If we do end up facing the Patriots in the AFCC, one good thing is that their defense is dead last in RZTD% allowed. They have allowed 37 red zone drives, but 26 of those have resulted in a TD (70.3%). The Vikings are first at 43.8%. None of the teams that allow plenty of red zone drives, are heading to the playoffs.

The Patriots defense has been great outside of the red zone, but terrible in the red zone.

Looking at the Bronco’s final regular season opponent, the Chargers are 9th at stopping the run, and 3rd at stopping the pass (ANYA allowed). They really shut down the Bronco offense in the first meeting. The Bronco offense was 2 of 13 on 3rd down conversions that game and still only lost the game by 3 points. This game should be much different as the Bronco offense has been fairly effective on 3rd downs recently.

7/12 vs Loss Vegas

4/11 vs GNB

5/14 vs Jax

11/18 vs KC

That’s 27 of 55 or 49% over the last four games. The 49ers currently lead the league at 51.0% on 3rd downs.

RJ Harvey has a good chance at winning the OROY. He leads all non-QBs in TDs with 12. Jaxson Dart leads all rookies in total TDs with 22 (13 passing and 9 rushing), but it’s hard to win any awards on a team that has been in contention for the #1 pick all season. East Coast bias will probably mean that TreVeyon Henderson wins the OROY. He is currently second in rookie rushing yards, but he has a much better YPC than Ashton Jeanty. Henderson also plays for a contender, while Jeanty had the misfortune of getting drafted by the Faiders.

Drake Maye will probably win the NFL MVP, but that’s fine. The team with the MVP rarely wins the Super Bowl. The only time that has happened in the last decade was in the 2022 season when Kermit the QB won the award and the Chiefs won the Super Bowl. Before that you have to go back to 2011 with Aaron Rodgers and the Packers.