NFL Wild Card Round Bet of the Week

FTN’s NFL Wild Card Weekend Bet of the Week is powered by our advanced model that simulates every game 10,000 times.

Find this week’s top edge, complete with true odds and expert analysis.

FTN’s NFL Bet of the Week: Texans/Steelers Over 39.5

The model projects a strong lean to the over in the matchup between the Steelers and Texans, with the over hitting in 58% of our simulations.

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The Texans fielded one of the league’s best defenses this season, but that doesn’t mean points will be impossible to come by. Since C.J. Stroud’s return six weeks ago, Houston has quietly been one of the NFL’s more efficient offenses, ranking seventh in passing DVOA over that stretch. On the other side, the Steelers, long defined by defense, were actually more balanced this year. They finished 13th in offensive DVOA and 11th in defensive DVOA, a notable shift from past seasons.

Both defenses should show up, but there’s enough offensive efficiency on each side to push this game over the low total of 39.5 points.

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Final Thoughts

NFL betting is about finding small edges that add up over the course of the season. FTN’s Bet of the Week is just one example of the actionable insights our model delivers. Lock in this week’s best bet, and check back every week for the next free NFL best play.