NFL Week 18 Survivor/Eliminator Picks

1 week ago 2

The final week of NFL Survivor is a different beast than any other week of the contest. First, by definition you’ve run it down to less than half the league available. Second, the driving narrative of Week 18 of the NFL season is not “who is better than whom,” it’s “who even cares about the week?”

For example, last year the Chiefs were better than the Broncos. Everyone agrees to that. But the Chiefs had everything locked up in Week 18, while the Broncos needed a win to clinch a playoff spot. Thus, the Broncos beat the Chiefs 38-0. Motivation is all important this week.

Which brings me to the process for my Week 18 pick, below. And if you’re into numbers, don’t miss Aaron Schatz’s legendary content and our StatsHub advanced stats research tool for next-level insights.

NFL Survivor Picks for Week 18

Every week, we have the same process … until now. Normally I go category by category to eliminate teams in swaths. This week, there are just two swaths: Does Week 18 matter for you? If yes, does Week 18 matter for your opponent?

Is Week 18 Pointless?

These are the teams with either nothing to play for or, in the case of the Giants and Raiders, incentive to actually lose.

Arizona Cardinals (@ LA Rams)
Atlanta Falcons (vs. New Orleans)
Cincinnati Bengals (vs. Cleveland)
Cleveland Browns (@ Cincinnati)
Dallas Cowboys (@ NY Giants)
Detroit Lions (@ Chicago)
Green Bay Packers (@ Minnesota)
Indianapolis Colts (@ Houston)
Kansas City Chiefs (@ Las Vegas)
Las Vegas Raiders (vs. Kansas City)
Miami Dolphins (@ New England)
Minnesota Vikings (vs. Green Bay)
New Orleans Saints (@ Atlanta)
New York Giants (vs. Dallas)
New York Jets (@ Buffalo)
Tennessee Titans (@ Jacksonville)
Washington Commanders (@ Philadelphia)

Some of these teams might still have some incentive — the Falcons might be motivated to keep the Buccaneers out of the playoffs, the Lions famously already went all out in a meaningless Week 18 game to hurt a division foe — but ultimately, these teams already know their fate for next week and beyond and don’t have a reason to go all out this week.

That’s 17 teams out, with 15 to go.

Does Week 18 Matter for Your Opponent?

Baltimore Ravens (@ Pittsburgh)
Carolina Panthers (@ Tampa Bay)
Denver Broncos (vs. LA Chargers)
Los Angeles Chargers (@ Denver)
Pittsburgh Steelers (vs. Baltimore)
San Francisco 49ers (vs. Seattle)
Seattle Seahawks (@ San Francisco)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs. Carolina)

Sure, the incentive structure varies here — the Chargers are resting guys despite a theoretical chance to be anywhere from the 5 seed to the 7 — but the category is the category.

That’s eight more gone, leaving us with seven — our seven contenders.

The Contenders

Once we’re down to this small a number of teams, we’re done cutting them in swaths. We look at the pros and cons for each team and then figure it out. I’m also diving into our NFL Betting Model to see what the numbers think of the game.

Buffalo Bills (vs. NY Jets)

Model Projection: Bills 30.83-15.98, Bills 83.8% win rate

Pros: Even if the Bills rest guys (they’re on the road in the Wild Card Round regardless, with just the 5-6-7 seed to be decided), a smattering of Bills second-teamers should be enough to beat the Jets.

Cons: You’ve made it this long and you want to bet on Mitch Trubisky to cap it off?

Chicago Bears (vs. Detroit)

Model Projection: Bears 27.93-26.69, Bears 52.8% win rate

Pros: The Lions are eliminated, while the Bears could get the 2 seed (and potentially two home games) with a win).

Cons: The Lions went all out to ruin the Packers a few years ago, they might do that to the Bears too.

Houston Texans (vs. Indianapolis)

Model Projection: Texans 29.25-12.98, Texans 88.4% win rate

Pros: The Texans could win the division if they win and the Jaguars lose, and the Colts are down to Riley Leonard at quarterback.

Cons: The Jaguars play the Titans, so the chances they lose are slim. If they jump out early, the Texans might call it in the rest of the way.

Jacksonville Jaguars (vs. Tennessee)

Model Projection: Jaguars 26.01-16.02, Jaguars 77.1% win rate

Pros: The Jags could theoretically even be the 1 seed if they win and things break right, and they need to win to guarantee a division title. Meanwhile, the Titans are the Titans.

Cons: …Looking ahead? I don’t know, hard to really draw this one up.

Los Angeles Rams (vs. Arizona)

Model Projection: Rams 31.62-21.17, Rams 73.2% win rate

Pros: The Rams can’t win the division anymore. They’re the 5 seed or 6 seed. But the 5 seed — and playing Carolina or Tampa Bay — is definitely preferable to playing the Eagles or Bears on the road.

Cons: Sean McVay has said the team’s starter will play. But does that mean they’ll play all 60 minutes? The last thing you want is Matthew Stafford or Puka Nacua being lost for the playoffs in an effort to win a nearly meaningless Week 18 game.

New England Patriots (vs. Miami)

Model Projection: Patriots 29.29-16.70, Patriots 80.3% win rate

Pros: The Patriots can theoretically be the 1 seed with a win and a Broncos loss. And Drake Maye isn’t a veteran teams give veteran rest to; he’s a second-year player trying to lock up an MVP. He’ll play.

Cons: Unless he doesn’t? I don’t know, maybe the team decides it won’t get the 1 seed, doesn’t care about 2 vs. 3, and doesn’t want Maye to push in a meaningless game.

Philadelphia Eagles (vs. Washington)

Model Projection: Eagles 28.82-16.65, Eagles 79.8% win rate

Pros: The Eagles are either the 2 or the 3 seed. The Commanders are done and look it.

Cons: There isn’t that much difference between the 2 and the 3, and the Eagles have already said they’re likely to rest guys.

The Pick

Buffalo Bills (vs. NY Jets)

I had several opportunities to select the Bills this season and saved them because I could see this game coming at the end of the season. Now we’re here, and suddenly the Bills have less to play for than we all expected earlier and might rest some players … and I don’t care. You can’t rest everyone. A few minutes of Josh Allen plus the Bills’ second-tier starters and B-team is enough to beat this iteration of the Jets.

Would I pick some other options at this point if I hadn’t burned them earlier this season? Yeah, probably. But this is where we are. Good luck to you.

Honorable Mention

Denver Broncos (vs. LA Chargers) — if you didn’t use them when I did
Houston Texans (vs. Indianapolis) — if you didn’t use them when I did
Jacksonville Jaguars (vs. Tennessee) — if you didn’t use them when I did

2025 record: 14-3

Week 1: Broncos (W)
Week 2: Rams (W)
Week 3: Chiefs (W)
Week 4: Packers (L)
Week 5: Cardinals (L)
Week 6: Steelers (W)
Week 7: Bears (W)
Week 8: Colts (W)
Week 9: Chargers (W)
Week 10: Lions (W)
Week 11: Ravens (W)
Week 12: Seahawks (W)
Week 13: Jaguars (W)
Week 14: Buccaneers (L)
Week 15: 49ers (W)
Week 16: Texans (W)
Week 17: Patriots (W)
Week 18: Bills