Matthew Stafford seals his MVP case in Rams' comeback win

6 days ago 2

INGLEWOOD, Calif. – Matthew Stafford all but wrapped up the first NFL MVP award of his career on Sunday, completing 25 of 40 passes for 259 yards, 4 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions in a comeback win over the Arizona Cardinals.

The win clinched the fifth seed for the 12-5 Rams and a return trip to Carolina to face the 8-9 Panthers in the Wild Card round. The last time the Rams won 12 games in a season, Stafford led them to a Super Bowl victory four years ago.

Stafford finished the season ranked first in the NFL in passing yards (4,707), passing yards per game (276.9), passing touchdowns (46), and touchdown-to-interception ratio (46-8).

Five of his eight interceptions came on the road in upset losses to the 8-9 Panthers and 8-9 Falcons. He played at his best against the NFL's top teams.

In a game for the division and the No. 1 seed in Seattle on Dec. 18, Stafford completed 29 of 49 passes for 457 yards, 3 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. His 41-yard touchdown to Puka Nacua in overtime should have been the game-winner after the defense and special teams blew a 16-point lead with eight minutes left in regulation. The defense ultimately allowed the game-winning touchdown and two-point conversion in overtime.

Against the San Francisco 49ers on Thursday Night Football three months ago, Stafford completed 30 of 47 passes for 389 yards, 3 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions in another game the Rams should have won but lost in overtime, largely due to their defense and special teams.

If you're knocking Stafford's MVP résumé because of those two losses—making the Rams 12-5 instead of 14-3—you're missing the point of an individual award. Those defeats against the 14-3 Seahawks and 12-5 49ers prevented the Rams from winning the NFC West and securing the No. 1 seed, but they shouldn't prevent Stafford from winning MVP.

New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye has had an equally impressive season, leading the Patriots to a 14-3 record and the No. 2 seed in the AFC. He leads the NFL in completion percentage (72.0), average yards per pass (8.9), QBR (77.2), and passer rating (113.5).

Stafford and Maye, however, faced drastically different opponents this season. While the Rams played one of the NFL's toughest schedules, the Patriots had the easiest. The Patriots played only two teams (three total games) with winning records and finished 1-2 against the Pittsburgh Steelers and Buffalo Bills. After losing at home to the NFL's worst team, the 3-14 Las Vegas Raiders, their schedule included games against the 3-14 New York Jets (twice), 3-14 Tennessee Titans, 4-13 New York Giants, and 5-12 Cleveland Browns.

Against teams with winning records, Stafford threw for 1,879 yards, 20 touchdowns, 1 interception, and posted a 107 passer rating. Maye threw for 696 yards, 2 touchdowns, 2 interceptions, and an 88 passer rating in those matchups.

Stafford is the current odds-on favorite to win NFL MVP at most sportsbooks heading into the playoffs. It's not a lifetime achievement award for the 37-year-old quarterback, who turns 38 next month. He has had a historic season by any statistical measure: He became the third player in NFL history with multiple touchdown passes in 15 games in a single season, joining Hall of Famers Peyton Manning (2013 with Denver) and Dan Marino (1984 with Miami). He became the third player in NFL history to throw at least 45 touchdowns and fewer than 10 interceptions in a season, joining Tom Brady (2007 with New England) and Aaron Rodgers (2011 and 2020 with Green Bay). Stafford also threw multiple passing touchdowns in 11 consecutive games, the longest streak by any player since Patrick Mahomes' 14-game run from 2018 to 2019.

While both Stafford and Maye are deserving of the MVP award this season, it's often hard to have a civilized debate in a race this close. Fans and pundits make absurd claims to diminish one player's résumé and elevate their favorite. The most ridiculous on social media is the idea that the Rams would still be a playoff team without Stafford. According to what? Both quarterbacks started all 17 games. What makes anyone think the Rams would be anywhere near their current position without him? The Rams are 3-8 in games without Stafford since he joined the team; two of those wins came when Sean McVay signed Baker Mayfield in the final month of the 2022 season, helping revive his career after he was cut by Carolina.

Another odd knock against Stafford, from those pushing Maye, is his success throwing touchdowns in the red zone, particularly inside the five-yard line, as if those scores count less. Stafford completed 18 of 28 passes for 18 touchdowns inside five yards; Maye completed 11 of 25 for 10 touchdowns. The goal is to score a touchdown, whether from five yards or 55.

As much as this isn't a lifetime achievement award for Stafford, you can't ignore that human voters decide it and sentimentality plays a role in a race this tight. Maye turned 23 before the season, his second in the league after being the third pick in the 2024 draft. Most expect this to be the first of many MVP races for him. This is the first time in Stafford's 17-year career that he's the MVP favorite, an incredible accomplishment for a player who missed almost all of training camp with an aggravated disk in his back, leaving some to wonder if he'd play again.

When asked Sunday about his personal goals entering the season, he smiled and said, “Make it to Week 1. Just hoping I did that. We got there and just held on for dear life. That's where I was, to be honest with you. There were some touch-and-go moments there.”

If you don't think that will factor into voters' decisions in a 50-50 race, you're not being realistic.

NFL Network's Tom Pelissero conducts an annual early awards survey; this year's, completed before Christmas Eve by high-ranking executives from 30 NFL teams (including 21 general managers), had Stafford with 18 votes for MVP compared to five for Maye.

After the regular season ended Sunday, Tom Brady, the last Patriots quarterback to win MVP, was asked who should take home the award this year. “I think what Matthew Stafford has done this season has been absolutely remarkable,” Brady said on FOX. “Forty-six touchdowns—for any quarterback, that's a dream season. So he's been spectacular. Drake Maye has done some incredible things with Josh McDaniels in their first year together. Drake's got a long career ahead. I'm sure he's going to have many opportunities. But I would say Matthew Stafford.”

Both are deserving, but it's hard to go against the numbers and the sentimentality surrounding Stafford as he all but wrapped up the MVP on Sunday.

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