Five Black Monday predictions ahead of NFL's darkest day for embattled coaches

"Black Monday," metaphorically the worst day on the NFL calendar, isn’t even 24 hours away. On a day when 18 teams are cleaning out their collective lockers going into an offseason they wish was still a few weeks away, several head coaches – along with their assistants and, by extension, families – will also be packing up ahead of a permanent change of address.

Two teams, the Tennessee Titans and New York Giants, decided weeks ago that they were headed in new directions in 2026, pulling the plugs on Brian Callahan and Brian Daboll, respectively, preemptively rather than let them unnecessarily twist in the wind before an inevitable axe fell. Will their dismissals serve as precursors for a larger HC bloodletting?

Advertisement

Before we find out officially, here are a few Black Monday predictions:

Black Monday will be moderate shade of gray

Since the start of the Super Bowl era – the 1966 season – six to seven head coaching openings, on average, materialize each year. As previously mentioned, two teams have already begun their searches. But if one were to set an over/under of, say, 3½ more firings in 2026, I’d be inclined to take the under. Several coaches this season have certainly fallen short of expectations, though quite a few have been victimized by circumstances largely beyond their control – whether they be injuries, weak rosters, poor quarterback play or maybe a combination thereof.

It’s also worth noting that very few organizations wait anymore to render a decision on Black Monday itself. Increasingly, teams like the Giants and Titans cut the cord when it’s clearly the proper course of action. Others will make an announcement in the hours after the regular-season finale rather than make a coach endure a process that need not last an additional day. And, sometimes, a club and/or coach need a cooling-off period before deciding whether a break-up is in order.

Advertisement

The guess here? Most pink slips will be issued by Sunday’s end – or maybe not until week’s end … just don’t expect all that many.

A coach in the playoffs won’t remain with his team in 2026

It’s not all that unusual to see a head man depart his post even after reaching the postseason – especially one who’s gotten into something of a good-but-not-great rut. This isn’t an indictment or suggestion any of the following men are in trouble, per se. But franchises sometimes wind up deciding to take a step back in order to (theoretically) eventually move forward – even if it means parting with a proven winner like Todd Bowles or Matt LaFleur or even John Harbaugh. Just saying – sometimes Black Monday arrives a week late.

NFL hot seat rankings: Which coaches are in most trouble ahead of Week 18?

Advertisement

Mike McDaniel will stay in Miami

Widely identified as a man on the hot seat in the aftermath of the Dolphins’ disappointing 8-9 finish in 2024, could he somehow survive what’s shaping up as another seven- or eight-win campaign? In a break from their typical pattern under McDaniel, who’s wrapping up his fourth season at the helm, the Fins have nearly gotten back to break even after a 1-6 start – one that included the season-ending loss of dynamic WR Tyreek Hill. It’s also worth noting that McDaniel was retained at midseason when owner Stephen Ross and former GM Chris Grier mutually parted ways.

The Dolphins will obviously find a replacement for Grier (thanks, Troy Aikman). They’re also probably contractually stuck with QB Tua Tagovailoa, who’d had quite a bit of success under McDaniel before being benched late in the season, for at least another year. But even if the next GM decides to take a financial bath by cutting Tagovailoa, a move that would trigger something in the neighborhood of of nine-figure salary-cap pain, the team isn’t likely to find an immediate replacement who's face-of-the-franchise-caliber. Given those options, it probably makes sense to retain McDaniel – whether he goes back to work with Tua or continues shepherding rookie Quinn Ewers, and kick the HC decision can down the road for a year. While it’s certainly ideal to have a new GM and coach enter the building together, philosophically aligned and such, it’s nearly as common for a new personnel boss to take the lay of the land for a year before deciding whether to stick with a program or fully reset it – recent examples of similar reboots transpiring in Nashville and Chicago.

Browns keep Kevin Stefanski

The dude has been the league’s Coach of the Year – twice since 2020. In Cleveland. If unspoken, it was fairly apparent that the Browns were thinking long term – meaning with Stefanski and GM Andrew Berry – the moment they traded away the No. 2 pick of the 2025 draft and didn’t reach for a quarterback like Jaxson Dart or Tyler Shough early in the proceedings. What Cleveland did do was load up on young talent – DT Mason Graham, LB Carson Schwesinger, TE Harold Fannin Jr., WR Isaiah Bond, RBs Quinshon Judkins and Dylan Sampson and – maybe? – QBs Shedeur Sanders and Dillon Gabriel. It's quite a young core − even if neither of the latter two prove worthy of a long-term investment. And, don't forget, the Browns have two first-round picks in this year’s draft and/or the option of finding another veteran stopgap as they continue to seek a long-term answer behind center.

Advertisement

Regardless, the course owner Jimmy Haslam has charted – not to mention the often positive results in recent years, even when Stefanski was saddled with the quarterbacking albatross that is Deshaun Watson – would seem to suggest the coach could and should remain part of the grander plan.

Mike Tomlin's future is up to Mike Tomlin

We hear you, Pittsburgh Steelers fans. You're frustrated. Winning annually is fine, but not winning Super Bowls annually isn't. There's no doubt Tomlin and this organization want to do better than one-and-done − if they make it that far − when the playoffs roll around. There's no doubt Tomlin and this organization want a long-term answer at quarterback. There's no doubt Tomlin and this organization want to finish constructing that long-awaited Stairway to Seven, stuck on a league-record six Lombardi Trophies − for one franchise anyway − since he, Ben Roethlisberger and Co. won Super Bowl 43 to cap the 2008 season.

Advertisement

But after 19 non-losing seasons and 200 wins (including playoffs), Tomlin − one of three coaches the ever-stable Steelers have employed since 1969 − won't be pushed out of Pittsburgh. He'll only jump, and likely to a plum job opening like the Giants', if that's what he chooses to do. But don't hold your collective breath, you ungrateful and spoiled Yinzers.

All NFL news on and off the field. Sign up for USA TODAY's 4th and Monday newsletter.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: NFL coach firing: Five predictions for Black Monday moves