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It's no secret that the Washington Commanders have had a disappointing 2025 season. The team has a 4-12 record entering Week 18, just one year after advancing all the way to the NFC Championship Game.
The good thing about being this bad is that you get a top pick in the draft. There are only six other teams with the same or fewer wins than the Commanders entering the final week of the season.
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ESPN's Seth Walder published updated pick probabilities ahead of Week 18. The Commanders can't earn the No. 1 pick, but they are guaranteed a top-10 pick and have a decent shot at landing in the top 5.
According to Walder's probabilities, the Commanders now have a 24.2% chance of earning a top-5 selection. The Las Vegas Raiders are the only team guaranteed a top 5 selection and also currently have the best shot at landing the top pick.
Walder's probabilities do not account for the possibility of teams resting starters, which is likely to happen given that most playoff seeds are locked in.
The Commanders will end their regular season against the division rival Philadelphia Eagles. The Eagles have already announced that key starters will not play in Week 18, despite the team still having a shot at earning the No. 2 seed.
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One of the Commanders' other rivals, the New York Giants, has the second-best odds at landing the top pick. The Giants have a 10.7% chance of landing the most coveted pick, with their final matchup coming against the Dallas Cowboys.
At this point, the Commanders hope to turn the page and use this pick to improve the roster for 2026. The Commanders have plenty of needs to address, but getting healthy for 2026 is the most important.
This article originally appeared on Commanders Wire: Washington Commanders: What are odds of landing top-5 NFL draft pick?
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