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The first game of the 2025 NFL Playoffs on Saturday afternoon pits the 12-5 Los Angeles Rams — one of the Super Bowl favorites with the potential MVP in QB Matthew Stafford — against an 8-9 division winner in the Carolina Panthers.
Oddsmakers and bettors aren't convinced that the game will be close — so much so that the Rams are now a historic road favorite.
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Los Angeles opened as a 10-point favorite in Carolina at BetMGM, and the line has moved to -10.5 (and even up to -11 at some books). If that line holds, it would make the Rams the biggest road favorite in the Super Bowl era, according to Sports Odds History — that goes all the way back to 1966.
"We opened Rams -10, but it's been one-sided wagering so far," Thomas Gable, sportsbook director at The Borgata in Atlantic City, told Yahoo Sports on Wednesday. "All public money on the Rams. We're up to -10.5 right now, with the total still at 46.5."
Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were 10-point road favorites at the Washington Commanders in 2021, while the New Orleans Saints were 9.5- or 10-point road favorites at the Seattle Seahawks in 2010 in Marshawn Lynch's famous "Beast Quake" game. Both underdogs covered, with the Seahawks winning outright 41-36 over Drew Brees' Saints.
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In fact, road favorites of at least 4.5 points are 1-6-1 against the spread since 1966, and have gone only 4-4 straight up.
The Rams lost 31-28 at Carolina in Week 13 as a 10-point favorite this season, a game in which Bryce Young threw three touchdown passes and Stafford had one of his worst games of the year with three interceptions.
Los Angeles was one of the best teams against the spread this season at 12-5, while the Panthers were 10-7 ATS. All eight games Carolina won were as an underdog, but the Panthers are 8-0 ATS after a loss this season. Carolina lost 16-14 in Week 18 against the Bucs.
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