Chiefs vs Raiders Predictions, Picks & Best Bets for NFL Week 18

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For the first time since 2014, the Kansas City Chiefs enter the final regular season game knowing they’re 60 minutes from the offseason. The Las Vegas Raiders are 60 minutes away from being on the clock.

Sunday’s AFC West finale features two rivals who are ready for the season to be over, but there’s still plenty of betting opportunities in what could be the final game in the storied career of Travis Kelce as we explore them in my Chiefs vs. Raiders predictions.

Read on for my free NFL picks for Sunday, January 4.

Chiefs vs Raiders prediction

Chiefs vs Raiders Best bet: Chiefs -5.5 (-113)

Make no mistake about it, the Las Vegas Raiders do not want to win this game.

That’s not to say that the players want to lose. But the franchise has the number one pick locked up if they lose here, and they just got trounced by the Giants of all teams.

And now Geno Smith is officially out, while Brock Bowers and Maxx Crosby are both on IR. Add in the reports from ESPN stating the Raiders ownership is telling the coaching staff to not lose them the top pick, and you have a team set to hang it up.

Sure, the Kansas City Chiefs are down to quarterback Chris Oladokun, who picked up just 66 passing yards against the Broncos on 22 pass attempts. But they at least gave the Broncos a fight.

And let’s not forget that this could be the final game that Travis Kelce plays for the Chiefs. While he’s made no commitment to his future, you can’t fathom his teammates will want anything but a win for their legendary tight end.

There’s also the fact that the Raiders have lost 11 consecutive divisional matchups by an average of nearly 12 points per game. They’ve also lost six of their last seven against the Chiefs, and 11 of the last 13 showdowns between these teams.

The Raiders have covered just twice in their last seven games. And last week as a three-point dog, they lost by 24. They looked like a team that is ready for the offseason, while the Chiefs are still showing some fight.

Keeping this game close would be playing with fire for the Raiders, and the Chiefs do have better players on both sides of the ball. It probably won’t be pretty, but the Chiefs will do enough to win by at least a touchdown.

Chiefs vs Raiders same-game parlay

During their 10 game losing skid, the Raiders have scored 14 or fewer points on six occasions. The Chiefs haven’t scored more than 13 points in four straight outings themselves, which has helped keep the total below 36 points in each of those outings. I’m expecting a similar situation here with two quarterbacks who can’t push the ball down the field.

Oladokun didn’t put in a pretty performance against Denver, but he did throw a touchdown pass as he connected with Brashard Smith. With Kelce likely playing his final game, and Hollywood Brown needing a touchdown catch to cash in a massive bonus, I expect Andy Reid to try to set up at least one of them—which will give us another Oladokun scoring toss.

Chiefs vs Raiders SGP

Chiefs -5.5
Under 36.5
Chris Oladokun Over 0.5 passing touchdowns

Our big-ticket SGP: Proper sendoff for Kelce

Oladokun connected five times on six targets to Kelce last week, and the Raiders have been hurt by tight ends of late. Both the Eagles and Texans completed seven throws to their tight ends, scoring a combined three touchdowns in the process.

It might take some creative playcalling, but Reid will want to get Kelce one final moment as a Chief. I’ll back him to end his four-game scoring drought one way or another.

Chiefs vs Raiders SGP

Chiefs -5.5
Under 36.5
Chris Oladokun Over 0.5 passing touchdowns
Travis Kelce anytime touchdown

Chiefs vs Raiders odds

Spread: Kansas City -5.5 (-110) | Las Vegas +5.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Kansas City -255 | Las Vegas +210
Over/Under: Over 36.5 (-106) | Under 36.5 (0114)

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Chiefs vs Raiders trend to know

The Las Vegas Raiders have hit the 1H Team Total Under in 7 of their last 10 games at home (+3.95 Units / 34% ROI). Find more NFL betting trends for Chiefs vs. Raiders.

How to watch Chiefs vs Raiders

Location	Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, NV
Date	Sunday, January 4, 2026
Kickoff	4:25 p.m. ET
TV	CBS

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