CFP teams with a first-round bye have lost their first six quarterfinal games

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When the College Football Playoff tripled in size from four to 12 teams ahead of the 2024 season, there was a reward built into the new bracket.

Rather than each of the playoff participants starting play at the same time, the top four seeds received a first-round bye, giving them an automatic berth in the national quarterfinals. After a long, physically demanding regular season, the thought was that those four squads would benefit from the extra rest as they prepared for their opportunity to compete for a national championship.

What was conceived as a perk has thus far been more of a burden.

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Halfway through the quarterfinals of the second 12-team playoff, teams coming off a bye have struggled mightily, with no wins in those matchups, though it’s been an admittedly small sample size (six games).

As No. 1 Indiana tries to buck that trend with its matchup against No. 9 Alabama in the Rose Bowl on Thursday, Jan. 1, here’s a closer look at how bye teams have fared thus far in the College Football Playoff:

CFP bye teams record

Heading into Indiana’s game against Alabama in the Rose Bowl, teams that receive a bye in the College Football Playoff are 0-6.

This season, No. 2 Ohio State and No. 4 Texas Tech have lost, with the Buckeyes falling to No. 10 Miami 24-14 in the Cotton Bowl and the Red Raiders getting blanked by No. 5 Oregon in the Orange Bowl, 23-0.

There’s some nuance to that figure.

During the inaugural 12-team playoff at the end of the 2024 season, the top four seeds went to the four highest-ranked conference champions, not the four-highest ranked teams. Because of that, Boise State earned the No. 3 seed despite being No. 9 in the playoff committee’s final ranking and Arizona State got the No. 4 seed despite being No. 12 in the final committee rankings (No. 16 Clemson, which earned the No. 12 seed, was the lowest-rated conference champion).

The Broncos and Sun Devils lost to Penn State and Texas, respectively, in their quarterfinal games. Both Texas (No. 3) and Penn State (No. 4) were ranked higher in the final committee rankings, despite being lower seeds than Boise State and Arizona State.

This year, due in part to that setup, the format changed, with the top four seeds and the automatic byes going to the four highest-ranked teams in the final committee rankings. So far, it hasn’t changed the outcomes, with Ohio State and Texas Tech losing.

It has raised the question of whether the extra week-and-a-half off has helped teams or knocked them out of the rhythm they had established over the course of the regular season, the classic rest-or-rust argument.

There’s some evidence showing it might be the latter.

The six losing teams that had received byes averaged just 15 points per game, with four of the six scoring 14 points or fewer. Those struggles have been most pronounced early in the games, when any lag from the extra time off would be most evident. The six teams that earned byes and lost their quarterfinal games combined to score just 21 points in the first half. None of those squads scored more than eight points. This year, neither Ohio State nor Texas Tech scored in the opening 30 minutes.

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