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Purdue men’s basketball opened the season as the betting favorite for the national championship, but a handful of adversaries caught up.
The Boilermakers hold the sixth-best March Madness championship odds on FanDuel (+1300). If that number improves in the season’s second half, Purdue's championship form likely will as well.
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The season’s first 16 games confirmed Purdue’s elite status in some important areas. It also reaffirmed the continued need for defensive consistency.
A look at the resume the Boilermakers built over the first 16 games and what it means for the next 16.
Is Purdue in position for the NCAA tournament No. 1 Midwest seed?
Earning that distinction for the second time in three seasons could keep the Boilers' entire tourney path within a four-hour drive of West Lafayette. The farthest destination — St. Louis — would come in the first round. Chicago hosts the regional ahead of the Final Four in Indianapolis.
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One major roadblock, though, already fell into that optimal path. Actually, 23 roadblocks — the number of points still-unbeaten Iowa State won by Dec. 6 at Mackey Arena. Purdue cannot equalize that nonconference loss the way it sometimes can against a Big Ten foe.
The teams share two common opponents. Both easily beat Eastern Illinois. The Cyclones beat Iowa 66-62 in Ames. Purdue plays the Hawkeyes twice — Wednesday, at Mackey Arena, and Feb. 14 in Iowa City.
Michigan remained No. 1 in the NET rankings as of Monday afternoon, and on multiple analytics sites. Its list of impressive victories — both in opponent and magnitude — tops even Purdue’s own notable stack.
All things remaining equal, the Boilers can settle this head-to-head Feb. 17 at Mackey Arena. It is the teams’ only regular-season matchup.
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Illinois has already taken three losses, including one to Alabama in Chicago and to Nebraska at home. It also must come to West Lafayette for its only game against Purdue.
Nebraska lingers outside the NET top 10 despite a 16-0 start, including one of four 5-0 records against Quad 1 opponents. Purdue plays the Cornhuskers only once — Feb. 10 in Lincoln.
Fred Hoiberg’s team also took a head-to-head edge on Michigan State by winning their only game against the Spartans. However, Tom Izzo’s team’s only other loss is to No. 1 seed contender Duke. They’re still very much in this mix.
The other wrinkle in the Midwest Region math this year? Chicago would also be the closest regional site for still-undefeated Vanderbilt from the SEC.
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Of the 32 entries on Bracket Matrix which have been updated in the past week, only two have Purdue as a 1 seed. The other 30 have them as a 2 seed.
As Selection Sunday approaches, we may debate whether Purdue is better off as the No. 2 Midwest seed — with that convenient travel itinerary — or as a No. 1 seed elsewhere. Then again, neither the No. 1 seed nor playing close to home has necessarily given the program a big postseason boost. Refining performance regardless of destination will matter most.
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Is Purdue's midseason performance on an NCAA championship pace?
Duke set the record for KenPom adjusted offensive efficiency last season at 130.1. The Boilermakers sit at 129.5 with room to improve.
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Even as standards for scoring and offensive efficiency have crept higher in recent years, this Purdue offense is unquestionably championship caliber. Simply ranking in the top 10 in effective field goal percentage and the top 35 in turnover percentage would probably get the job done.
Four of the last five champs posted AOE scores of 120 or higher, and 2021-22 Kansas barely missed at 119.2. This Purdue roster should coast above that threshold.
Three of the last five champs also posted offensive rebounding percentages of at least 36%, and that Kansas team posted a solid 32.9%. Purdue has improved from 31.8% last season to 39%. Oscar Cluff (21.3%) and Trey Kaufman-Renn (18.4%) are two of only three Big Ten players averaging better than 16.5%.
None of the last 15 champions produced a blocked shot percentage under 9%. Thanks mostly to the return of Daniel Jacobsen, Purdue’s mark jumped from 5.1% last season to its current 10.5%. That only ranks 128th nationally, but it's well within the norm for teams who win it all.
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Only four of those 15 champs allowed opponents to shoot over 32% from 3. None allowed them to shoot better than 33.9%. Boiler opponents only shoot 30.4% behind the arc, and that’s including Saturday’s uncharacteristic bombardment by Penn State.
So between rim protection and perimeter stinginess Purdue should be in good shape defensively, correct? Not exactly. Only one of the last 15 champions finished the season with a KenPom adjusted defensive efficiency higher than 92.5, and that was 2017-18 Villanova (94.0).
The Boilers have flirted with dipping below 95.0 but have risen back to 97.6 as of Monday. It does not mean they cannot win it all — but they would be an outlier. Champions are much more likely to be under 92.0 than anywhere near Purdue’s score. (That score could still include some preseason data, though those numbers are filtered out a little more each week.)
Dribble penetration will remain a focus in the second half, and not merely for optics or to nitpick a strong team’s limited weakness. It still seems essential to whether Purdue can win six straight NCAA tournament games, regardless of where they are played.
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By the way, teams who are both above 120 on offense and below 92.5 on defense in KenPom? Michigan, Arizona, Iowa State, UConn and Houston.
Insider: Winning weird proved fine for one night, but Purdue basketball's response matters
What is NET ranking? How is men's college basketball NET ranking determined?
A team's victories are assigned values from Quad 1 to Quad 4, based on the opponent's NET ranking and the location of the game. Those rankings remain fluid up through Selection Sunday, with teams rising and falling in the NET rankings and potentially moving in and out of quadrants.
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Quad 1: Home vs. NET 1-30, neutral 1-50 or away 1-75
Quad 2: Home vs. 31-75, neutral 51-100 or award 76-135
Quad 3: Home 76-160, neutral 101-200 or away 136-240
Quad 4: Home 161 or lower, neutral 201 or lower, away 241 or lower
Purdue basketball NCAA tournament resume comparison
A look at key NCAA tournament resume factors for Purdue and others:
PURDUE
Record: 15-1
NET ranking: 5
Quad 1 record: 4-1
Key wins (with NET ranking): at 17 Alabama 87-80, vs. 19 Texas Tech 86-56, vs. 36 Auburn 86-60, at 40 Wisconsin 89-73
Key losses: vs. 3 Iowa State 81-58
MICHIGAN
Record: 14-1
NET ranking: 1
Quad 1 record: 4-0
Key wins: at 42 TCU 67-63, vs. 36 Auburn 102-72, vs. 6 Gonzaga 101-61, vs. 29 Villanova 89-61
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Key losses: vs. 40 Wisconsin 91-88 (OT)
ARIZONA
Record: 16-0
NET ranking: 2
Quad 1 record: 5-0
Key wins: vs. 15 Florida 93-87, at 8 UConn 71-67, vs. 36 Auburn 97-68, at 17 Alabama 96-75, at 42 TCU 86-73
Key losses: None
IOWA STATE
Record: 16-0
NET ranking: 3
Quad 1 record: 5-0
Key wins: vs. 26 St. John’s 83-82, vs. 47 Creighton 78-60, at 5 Purdue 81-58, vs. 21 Iowa 66-62, at 49 Baylor 70-60
Key losses: None
DUKE
Record: 15-1
NET ranking: 4
Quad 1 record: 7-1
Key wins: vs. 22 Kansas 78-66, vs. 32 Arkansas 80-71, vs. 15 Florida 67-66, at 14 Michigan State 66-60, at 18 Louisville 84-73, vs. 24 SMU 82-75
Key losses: vs. 19 Texas Tech 82-81
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GONZAGA
Record: 17-1
NET ranking: 6
Quad 1 record: 3-1
Key wins: vs. 17 Alabama 95-85, at 35 Kentucky 94-59, vs. 45 UCLA 82-72
Key losses: vs. 1 Michigan 101-61
VANDERBILT
Record: 16-0
NET ranking: 7
Quad 1 record: 5-0
Key wins: at 37 UCF 105-93, vs. 30 St. Mary’s 96-71, vs. 24 SMU 88-69, at 63 Wake Forest 98-67, vs. 17 Alabama 96-90
UCONN
Record: 16-1
NET ranking: 8
Quad 1 record: 4-1
Key wins: vs. 9 BYU 86-84, vs. 10 Illinois 74-61, at 22 Kansas 61-56, vs. Florida 77-73
Key losses: vs. 2 Arizona 71-67
NEBRASKA
Record: 16-0
NET ranking: 11
Quad 1 record: 5-0
Key wins: vs. 41 New Mexico 84-72, at 10 Illinois 83-80, vs. 14 Michigan State 58-56, at 39 Ohio State 72-69, at 34 Indiana 83-77
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Key losses: None
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This article originally appeared on Indianapolis Star: Purdue basketball NCAA tournament resume comparison, championship chances
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