6 days ago
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BYU is off to its best start since 2010-2011 and started off Big 12 play with a Quad One road win over Kansas State. BYU welcomes Arizona State to the Marriott Center Wednesday night for its Big 12 home opener and first power conference opponent to visit the Marriott Center this season.
The game tips off Wednesday at 7pm MT on Peacock or NBCSN (if you have YouTube TV or Xfinity). This is a Quad three game for BYU.
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BYU and Arizona State by the Numbers
Arizona State KenPom: 85
NET ranking: 85
Record: 9-5
Best Wins: Texas (N), Oklahoma (N), Santa Clara (N)
Losses: Gonzaga (H), USC (N), UCLA (A), Oregon State (H), Colorado (H)
AP Ranking: N/A
BYU KenPom: 10
NET Ranking: 9
Record: 13-1
AP Ranking: 9
KenPom Prediction: BYU 90, ASU 73 — BYU 94% win probability
Point Spread: BYU -17
Point Total: 167.5
Arizona State Overview
ASU comes to Provo in their biggest slump of the season, losing their last three games. They started off Big 12 play Saturday with a home loss to Colorado, who is expected to be one of the bottom teams in the Big 12, and before that took a horrible Quad 4 home loss to Oregon State. That loss to Oregon State on December 21st moved them from 57 to 84 in NET.
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ASU was playing solid ball before that and are a capable team when on. They have good neutral court wins over Texas and Oklahoma and bring a good mix of size and guards. Offense is the strength of their team. They are one of the best teams in the Big 12 at getting to the line and have a couple guards that can put up points.
Defensively, Arizona State isn’t great but are best when they force turnovers. They force turnovers on 20% of their defensive possessions (#56 nationally). Their aggressive style also makes them prone to giving up fouls, offensive rebounds, and open three-point attempts. BYU struggled with turnovers at Kansas State, and if they have a similar turnover game either than ASU can keep it close.
Players to Watch
Maurice Odum, Guard — The 6-foot-2 senior leads ASU in scoring (16.6 ppg) and assists (6.6 apg). He is one of the most underrated point guards in the Big 12 and can impact the game multiple ways. Odum attempts 7 threes per game (36% 3pt %) and gets the foul line 5 times per game.
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Anthony Johnson, Guard — Johnson is ASU’s sixth man and second leading scorer (14.1 ppg). He is one of the best players in the country at drawing fouls. He draws 8.6 fouls per 40 minutes (6th nationally) and averages 7 free throw attempts in just 22 minutes per game. He averages two threes point attempts per game, but his game revolves around getting to the basket.
Massamba Diop, Center — Diop has been one of the top freshman in the Big 12. Listed at 7-foot-1 and 230 pounds, the Senegal native a mismatch for many opponents. Diop averages 13.6 points, 5 rebounds, and 2 blocks while shooting 65%. He can make life difficult for Rob Wright and AJ Dybantsa when they get to the basket.
Prediction
Arizona State has some good talent, but they are on a skid and aren’t reliable defensively. Their best hope to keep it close it to force turnovers with their pressure and get BYU’s starters into foul trouble. That is the way ASU wants to play and is their formula for an upset.
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I think they could keep it interesting for awhile, but this feels like a game where BYU is never truly threatened. AJ Dybantsa should be able to live at the foul line with ASU’s aggressive defense that is prone to fouls, and Richie Saunders has a chance to have open threes with the amount of space ASU can give to shooters when their traps aren’t successful.
I’ll take BYU to win comfortably.
Predction: BYU 89: Arizona State 71
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