Buffalo Bills slow starts raise playoff risk

ORCHARD PARK — One thing the Buffalo Bills have done rather effectively in 2025 is play from behind, though that’s not an attribute they want to continue to test once the postseason begins, especially since they’re probably going to be on the road for as long as they’re alive.

The Bills have not scored first in their past five games, yet they wound up winning the first four of those against the Steelers, Bengals, Patriots and Browns, and had Josh Allen not thrown a terrible pass at the worst possible moment on what would have been a game-winning two-point conversion last Sunday, they would have beaten the Eagles, too.

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In the other games where they did not score first — both Dolphins games, Falcons, the first Patriots game, and Buccaneers — they rallied to win twice against Miami and Tampa Bay.

Add that up and the Bills are an admirable 6-4 when they don’t score first. Further, they have shown ability to rally late to win games, too, as they have won five games that they trailed in the fourth quarter.

“I just don’t think there’s any quit on this team,” edge rusher Joey Bosa said. “We’ve proved that a few games this year, that you just have to keep fighting. And when you have Josh back there with the ball in his hands, anything is possible.”

Bills have had to dig themselves out of a hole too often

It began in Week 1 when they were 15 points behind Baltimore before pulling off an incredible comeback in the final four minutes to win 41-40. They entered the Week 3 Miami game trailing 21-14 going into the fourth quarter before winning 31-21.

In the 44-32 Week 11 shootout victory over Tampa Bay there were nine lead changes, the last coming when the Bills trailed 32-31 before going ahead for good with 9:06 left to play. They were down 28-18 in Week 14 to Cincinnati with 8:44 remaining before rallying to win 39-34. And at New England in Week 15 they were down 21-0 in the second quarter and 31-28 in the fourth before pulling out a 35-31 triumph.

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The Bills have even had to dig themselves out of a hole in three of the six games where they scored first. They got up early against the Ravens, Jets, Saints, Panthers, Chiefs, and Texans, and the lone loss in that group was to Houston, but in only three of those wins — Jets, Saints, Panthers — did the Bills lead wire-to-wire.

That’s right, just three times all season, and none since Week 8 at Carolina, have the Bills not found themselves trailing at some point.

In its last eight games, Buffalo has managed just 23 first-quarter points, and across the first 16 games it has been outscored 82-78 in the first quarter. Extending through the first half, the Bills have been outscored 221-189.

McDermott and Allen push for faster starts and cleaner execution

A couple weeks ago, following Buffalo’s spectacular comeback in Foxborough, coach Sean McDermott was asked about his team’s penchant for falling behind and he said, “That’s something we have to work on. Something we have to … get into a rhythm sooner. But there’s also an ability to adjust during a game. Anybody can come up with a game plan, but it’s also what happens when they take certain things away. Are you able to pivot and adjust? I think that’s the sign of a great staff.”

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What’s concerning about the slow starts is that the Bills’ passing game simply isn’t built to play from behind. Sure, they’ve gotten by for most of the season, but looking at the five other teams who are already in the AFC playoff bracket who could, at some point, become an opponent, the Texans rank fourth in the league in pass defense in terms of yards allowed per game, the Chargers are sixth, the Broncos are eighth and the Patriots are 10th. Only the Jaguars lag behind at 22nd.

Among those teams, the Texans are the best overall defense in the league, and clearly proved that in their victory over Buffalo, while the Broncos rank third, the Chargers are fourth, the Patriots are sixth and the Jaguars are 12th. Of the other two teams still contention, the Ravens’ defense ranks 25th and the Steelers are 27th.

“That’s not our mindset, I certainly understand why you’d ask that question because of the last few games in particular, but that’s not our mindset,” McDermott said of relying on rallies to win games. “Our mindset is to play a 60-minute game whatever it takes.”

Bottom line is this: There are some strong defenses in the AFC, and if the Bills get behind, it’s going to be tough to rally, especially if Allen has to repeatedly drop back and throw. They have to find a way to play with a lead once the postseason begins, or it could be a very short January, and Allen knows it.

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“Obviously, we want to start faster in these games,” Allen said. “But it’s being able to dig ourselves out and be battle-tested coming down the stretch here.”

— Sal Maiorana has covered the Buffalo Bills for more than four decades including 36 years as the full-time beat writer/columnist for the D&C. He has written numerous books about the history of the team, and he is also co-host of the BLEAV in Bills podcast/YouTube show. He can be reached at maiorana@gannett.com, and you can follow him on X @salmaiorana and on Bluesky @salmaiorana.bsky.social.

This article originally appeared on Rochester Democrat and Chronicle: Buffalo Bills need early leads for road playoffs