5 things to watch in the Chicago Bears-Detroit Lions game at Soldier Field — plus our Week 18 predictions

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The marathon is over. Sunday marks the end of the NFL regular season.

In recent years, Week 18 has signaled the end for the Chicago Bears. Not so this year. For the first time since 2020, the Bears are headed to the postseason. They have bigger goals on the horizon, starting with next week’s wild-card round of the playoffs.

But first, they have a matchup with the Detroit Lions. Sunday’s game has playoff implications. The simplest result is this: Win Sunday and they lock up the No. 2 seed in the NFC and a matchup with the No. 7 Green Bay Packers. A loss complicates matters a little, but the Bears are at least guaranteed a home game as NFC North champions.

Bears coach Ben Johnson already has declared his team is “playing to win.” Lions coach Dan Campbell said his squad will be competing, despite the fact they have nothing left to play for.

The Bears (11-5) square off against the Lions (8-8) on Sunday at Soldier Field (3:25 p.m., Fox-32). Here are five things to watch ahead of Week 18 — plus the Tribune’s predictions for the game.

1. A lot has changed since Week 2.

The NFL season is a brutal, physical journey from the time training camp starts in July until the playoffs in January.

“This is a race,” Johnson said on the day training camp began in July. The Bears are nearly at the end of the race now, and it has been a marathon more than a sprint.

Just think about where the Bears and the Lions were nearly four months ago. In Week 2, the Lions cruised to a 52-21 win over the Bears at Ford Field. The Bears fell to 0-2, while the Lions looked like the team that won 15 games a year ago.

“It’s early in the season and you’re still getting to know your team a little bit,” Johnson said this week as he reflected on that game. “Being in that locker room after that game and how that felt — you don’t always remember exactly what was said or anything like that, but you always remember how you felt in those moments.”

The feeling was not good.

Much has changed in the 15 weeks since then. The Bears are gearing up for a playoff run, and the Lions will be watching the postseason from home. Things change rapidly in the NFL. After that loss in Detroit, the Bears won their next four games and nine of 10.

The Lions, on the other hand, started the season 7-4 and in a favorable position before losing four of the next five. A Christmas Day loss in Minnesota eliminated the Lions from postseason contention.

Campbell suggested the Lions will play their starters, but he left some gray area with regard to players battling injury, which includes top receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown and tackle Penei Sewell.

“I think if it’s — we’re sitting there borderline, and the player, it could be hard (to play) or we think they’re setting themselves up for a long-term risk, then no, it’s not worth it,” Campbell told members of the Detroit media.

2. Player in the spotlight.

Bears QB Caleb Williams

Williams needs 109 passing yards to break the Bears’ single-season record. Erik Kramer set the mark with 3,838 yards in 1995. Jay Cutler came close to topping it with 3,812 yards in 2014, but the record has stood for 30 years.

That could be about to change.

Chicago Bears QB Caleb Williams on 4,000 yards: ‘I was brought here for those types of things’

Williams has surpassed 109 passing yards in every game this season. Also in play is a 4,000-yard season, something no Bears quarterback has done. Ever. With 3,730 yards this season, Williams needs 270 to reach the milestone.

The primary goal remains to win the game. But Williams said this week that he believes he’s in Chicago to rewrite the record books at the quarterback position.

That’s a burden he embraces.

“In 100 or however many years, it has never been done,” Williams said. “So it symbolizes something.”

Williams has played some of his best football over the last three games. In wins against the Cleveland Browns and Packers and a road loss to the San Francisco 49ers, he has averaged 274 passing yards with six touchdown passes and zero interceptions.

“I’m playing better than I have,” Williams said. “These last three games, but even going back to some of the other games, some of the stats may not show it, but I feel that I’m playing better. I said it’s going to start showing here soon, and that’s a small sample of that. I’ve got to keep growing, keep getting better.”

3. Would the old Bears have rebounded?

About that Week 2 beatdown in Detroit …

That’s exactly the type of game that the old Bears would’ve let bleed into the next week. A year ago, this same franchise lost on a brutal Hail Mary at Washington and went on to lose 10 consecutive games. Losing became inevitable.

While the early-season loss in Detroit might have felt like a “here we go again” moment, Johnson has never let his team think too much about any one game.

“That can kind of go one or two ways after that, right?” linebacker T.J. Edwards said. “And I think that shows where we’re at right now … having that belief in one another. It’s rare to have in a team where everyone is on the same page and everyone is understanding what we’re trying to get done. When those things are going wrong, it allows us to come together and make sure that it doesn’t stay that way.”

Column: Chicago Bears are ‘moving on to Detroit’ — but they won’t go far in playoffs if defense doesn’t improve

It’s a pertinent message this week, when the Bears are looking to brush off Sunday night’s loss in San Francisco. The Bears have built all sorts of momentum this season. They’ve been, all things considered, relatively healthy. Although the defense struggled against the 49ers, the team has played well overall during the toughest part of the schedule down the stretch.

“It kind of just goes with Ben’s messaging every week,” Edwards said. “He’s been the same. He’s been consistent. So it’s easy for us to kind of follow. But it’s a week-to-week league, right? So after big wins, celebrate for a second and then you’ve got to get back to work, and after big losses it’s no different because there’s another one coming up.”

The Bears want to head into the postseason on a positive note. A win against the Lions would do that.

4. Keep an eye on …

The Eagles game.

The Philadelphia Eagles and Washington Commanders will also kick off at 3:25 p.m. If the Bears lose Sunday and the Eagles win, the Eagles would jump the Bears for the No. 2 seed, dropping the Bears to No. 3.

The No. 2 seed will play the Packers, who are locked in at No. 7. The No. 3 seed will play someone from the NFC West, either the 49ers or Los Angeles Rams.

The Bears probably would rather take their chances against the Packers, a team they’ve played close twice already, winning once in dramatic fashion. The No. 2 seed also would play at home in the divisional round if it wins its first playoff game.

Reports out of Philadelphia have suggested the Eagles might sit their starters Sunday. That will be a situation to monitor. The Commanders, though, could start third-string quarterback Josh Johnson, so anything could happen even if the Eagles rest up for the playoffs.

Johnson has said the Bears are playing to win, but might that change if the Eagles are down by two touchdowns at halftime?

5. Injury updates: Will Rome Odunze play?

Odunze has missed four games with a foot injury. The Bears receiver hasn’t played since Nov. 28 in Philadelphia. Odunze has not participated in practice this week.

“We’ll see how this week goes,” Johnson said when asked about Odunze.

Rookie receiver Luther Burden III suffered a quad injury on the last play against the 49ers but has been back on the practice field this week. That’s a good sign for the Bears.

In Detroit, a number of key starters have been on the injury report, including linebacker Alex Anzalone (concussion), defensive tackle Alim McNeill (abdomen), Sewell (ankle), St. Brown (knee/ankle) and left tackle Taylor Decker (shoulder/illness).

Both teams will release one more injury report Friday.

Predictions

Brad Biggs (12-4)

The Bears are looking to tighten things up defensively after a woeful showing in San Francisco and along come the Lions, who have some key injury concerns on offense involving wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown and left tackle Taylor Decker, among others. Injuries also have rocked the Lions secondary, and opposing quarterbacks, with the exception of Minnesota Vikings undrafted rookie Max Brosmer last week, have lit up the Lions of late. The Bears have plenty of motivation with the No. 2 seed in the NFC there for the taking, even with reports that the Eagles, also in contention for that seed, are expected to rest key players for their finale against the Commanders.

Bears 35, Lions 24

Sean Hammond (13-3)

Week 18 is weird. But I’m going to take Johnson’s word when he says the Bears are playing to win. I’m not convinced the Lions truly are, no matter what they say. They have nothing to play for. Beyond Week 18 weirdness, though, the Bears have shown in the second half of the season that they’re the better team. I think they cap off a remarkable turnaround with win No. 12.

Bears 31, Lions 21

Phil Thompson (10-5)

The Lions are fizzling to a disappointing finish. The Bears have several incentives in this rematch: Secure the No. 2 seed, redeem the loss of a winnable game against the 49ers and avenge Week 2’s blowout loss in which the Lions ran up the score (don’t let anyone convince you otherwise). The Bears need to sharpen all phases heading into the playoffs, and the injury-riddled Lions look like sacrificial lambs.

Bears 31, Lions 20

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