15 things to watch in Riley Leonard's first NFL start for Colts

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INDIANAPOLIS — A Colts season that began with more promise than anybody expected will end in disappointment Sunday.

Indianapolis will be playing spoiler against the playoff-bound Texans at 1 p.m. Sunday in Houston’s NRG Stadium (WTTV-4), deploying the remnants of a team that once seemed like a lock for a playoff berth after an 8-2 start.

Fully eliminated from playoff contention by Houston’s win over the Chargers last Saturday night, Indianapolis (8-8) will start sixth-round rookie Riley Leonard at quarterback instead of 44-year-old Philip Rivers, the Hail Mary the Colts tossed the past three weeks in an effort to salvage the season after Daniel Jones tore his Achilles tendon in Jacksonville.

Leonard’s first NFL start is not going to be easy. Houston (11-5) still has a chance to win the AFC South.

1. Leonard will have to get the ball out of his hands quickly. The rookie has averaged 2.76 seconds from snap to throw in his limited action so far, but a lot of the plays he made against Jacksonville involved buying time in the pocket. Houston’s edge rushers do not allow a quarterback to hold onto the football. The Texans rank fifth in the NFL with 46 sacks this season.

2. The conventional wisdom is that Leonard will be able to test the Texans downfield more than Rivers, but the reality might not be that simple. Leonard has averaged 7.4 air yards per attempt in 33 throws this season, a small sample size that includes a Hail Mary; Rivers averaged 7.4 air yards per attempt on 92 throws.

3. Leonard obviously offers a lot more mobility than Rivers, who opened his starting stint with the Colts by joking that he’d never run away from anybody anyway. Leonard has six yards on three attempts this season, but he also sprained a knee against Jacksonville. In the preseason, the rookie ran seven times for 58 yards, and he’d be wise to look for opportunities to use his legs to move the chains against Houston.

4. Rookie right tackle Jalen Travis has been solid since taking over for an injured Braden Smith at right tackle, but he’ll be tested more than ever Sunday. Will Anderson Jr. lines up all over the formation, but he has typically spent most of his time on the left side, putting Travis up against an edge rusher who has 12 sacks this season and 84 pressures, according to the NFL’s Next Gen Stats, tying Anderson with Lions star Aidan Hutchinson for the league lead.

5. Indianapolis left tackle Bernhard Raimann played through a significant elbow injury against San Francisco, but like Travis, the job he faces on Sunday in Houston will be a lot tougher. Veteran Texans rusher Danielle Hunter leads the Texans with 14 sacks and has produced 67 pressures, good for seventh in the NFL.

6. A rookie quarterback making his first start often has a tendency to put the ball in harm’s way, and Houston will make Leonard pay if he’s not careful with the ball. The Texans have 18 interceptions, the fourth-highest mark in the NFL, and four different players — Derek Stingley, Calen Bullock, Jalen Pitre and Kwame Lassiter — have four interceptions this season. Only one Colt, free safety Camryn Bynum, has four interceptions on the year.

7. Jonathan Taylor still has a shot at the NFL’s rushing title, trailing Buffalo’s James Cook by 47 yards entering play on Sunday. Cook may not play a lot, or at all, for a Bills team that can’t change its playoff outlook all that much, leaving the door open for Taylor to come away with a rushing title that once seemed like it was his to lose. Taylor hasn’t broken the 100-yard mark or 4.0 yards per carry since his signature performance in Berlin, but he might have chances against Houston. Taylor picked up 85 yards on 21 carries in the first meeting between the two teams, arguably his best performance since Germany.

8. Ashton Dulin ripped off two kickoff returns of 50-plus yards in his return to the lineup on Sunday against Jacksonville, and Houston has been susceptible on kickoffs at times. The Texans are allowing 26.6 yards per return this season, 21st in the NFL.

9. Rigoberto Sanchez is on pace to shatter the franchise record for net punting, and he also has a chance to lead the NFL in net punting with a big day in Houston. Sanchez is averaging 44.8 net yards per punt this season, two full yards ahead of the record he shares with Pat McAfee for a single season and only a tenth of a yard behind Baltimore’s Jordan Stout for the NFL lead this season.

10. Laiatu Latu has been inconsistent in his second NFL season, but he still has a shot at posting the double-digit season in sacks that the Colts predicted for him. Latu is sitting on 8.5 sacks heading into the season finale, and even though Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud has improved his time to throw, his 2.81 seconds still offers opportunities to get home.

11. Indianapolis has been one of the NFL’s worst defenses against tight ends this season, giving up 1,104 yards to the position, and Houston’s leader in receptions is tight end Dalton Schultz. Schultz has 78 catches for 704 yards and three touchdowns this season, and even though he hasn’t threatened teams vertically much this season, he’ll likely have opportunities against the middle of the Indianapolis defense.

12. Texans superstar Nico Collins has put together another 1,000-yard season (71 catches, 1,117 yards, six touchdowns). If the Colts have Sauce Gardner available, Collins is the type of player that Gardner was acquired to follow across the formation. If not, Collins could have a field day against the rotating cast of cornerbacks Indianapolis has used, a rotation that largely went to Mekhi Blackmon and Cameron Mitchell last week.

13. Houston’s running game hasn’t been all that effective on a per-play basis, averaging 3.88 yards per carry to rank 28th in the NFL, but the Texans will keep pounding away. Houston is 24th in rushing, averaging 107.4 yards per game, because they keep feeding Woody Marks at running back. Indianapolis has been excellent against the run overall, ranking fifth in the NFL in yards (99.4) and third in yards-per-carry (3.8)

14. The Texans have been abysmal in the red zone. Houston’s offense ranks 30th in the league inside the 20-yard line, scoring touchdowns on only 45.1% of its drives. The Indianapolis defense ranks in the top 10 in the red zone, allowing touchdowns on 53.3% of drives to rank ninth in the red zone, a big part of the reason the Colts rank 19th in the NFL in scoring defense (23.4 points per game) despite giving up the second-most passing yards (250.3) of any defense in football.

15. Colts kicker Blake Grupe has been better than anybody expected, nailing all seven extra points and all eight field goals since signing with Indianapolis, including three field goals from 50 yards or more. Grupe has kicked so well that he may have options on the open market, even if the Colts would probably like to bring him back as insurance for rehabbing starter Spencer Shrader.

Joel A. Erickson and Nathan Brown cover the Colts all season. Get more coverage on IndyStarTV and with the Colts Insider newsletter.

This article originally appeared on Indianapolis Star: Colts vs Texans: What to watch in Riley Leonard's first NFL start

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