Why Miguel Vargas is poised for a breakout season in 2026

Last year, White Sox position player rookies surpassed expectations beyond belief. Kyle Teel and Edgar Quero quickly grew into one of most dynamic catching platoons in the league and Colson Montgomery had an explosive debut month. Now, it’s Miguel Vargas’ turn.

While it wasn’t quite the breakout season Sox fans would’ve wanted, Vargas rebounded from three underwhelming seasons. He slashed .175/.273/.312 with a -1.0 WAR in 171 games from 2022-2024, but he inched closer to the league average in 2025. Despite missing nearly all of August from separate injuries, Vargas improved his slash line to .234/.316/.401 and his WAR to 1.9 over 138 games, the longest season of his career. This performance jump was long overdue despite his mediocre production.

Advertisement

Underneath his below-average stat lines, Vargas actually carries several characteristics of a successful hitter. His bat-to-ball skills were the highlight of the season as he limited his chase and whiff rates to 21.6% and 20.6%, ranking in the top-75 percent of all qualified MLB hitters. And, he held a well-above-average 17.6% strikeout rate.

Another indicator of future success is his ability to do damage out of the zone. Vargas surprisingly has a higher run value outside of the zone than inside of it, resulting in run values above 20.0 in pull-side areas. When Vargas chases, he makes pitchers pay, showcasing his exceptional hand-eye coordination and ability to make contact.

This diagram highlights the biggest obstacle in Vargas’ path to a breakout season. To become a better slugger, he needs to get more comfortable hitting outside his sweet spots. Vargas shrinks his zone by choosing to lay off pitches in nearly a third of the strike zone, as indicated by his swing percentage profile below compared to the league average. He swings at less than nearly 50 percent of pitches on the outside and bottom edges of the zone despite having above-average power to pull balls in either region.

His slower bat speed is highly correlated with his tendency to avoid those regions. Already, Vargas has a below-average bat speed, sitting at 70.6 mph. This is only a 0.8 mph increase from 2024, and is likely attributed to the weight he lost and the muscle he put on last offseason. However, his bat speed is still below league average and it’s shrinking his ability to effectively hit pitches in the entire strike zone. To gain more confidence and stop giving away easy strikes, Vargas should work on shortening his swing, gaining muscle, or a combination of the two this offseason.

If Vargas wants to remind Sox fans why the Dodgers drafted him in 2017, he’ll become a more versatile hitter and leverage his strengths at the plate. Vargas has the discipline and power to become one of the most productive players in Chicago’s lineup, but he must be able to attack the full zone with confidence and authority. He has the elements of an above-average hitter, but he needs to make a few adjustments to help him break out.