Who has the edge? Dolphins at Patriots, in season finale

1 week ago 2

Here’s a look at how the Miami Dolphins (7-9) and New England Patriots (13-3) match up in six key areas ahead of Sunday’s Week 18 game at Gillette Stadium (4:25 p.m., Fox):

When the Dolphins run: Miami running back De’Von Achane, entering with 1,350 yards on the ground, can climb to No. 2 on the franchise’s single-season rushing yards list with 23 yards Sunday and could become the Dolphins’ second 1,400-yard rusher (Ricky Williams) with 50. Achane, dealing with an ailing shoulder this week, has been complemented of late by Jaylen Wright, who has at least 35 rushing yards in three of his past four outings.

The Dolphins’ run game overall, a staple of the team’s success in the second half of the season, has elevated itself to No. 10 in the league. The Patriots also have a top-10 run defense, at No. 8. They swarm to the ball, with linebackers Christian Elliss, Robert Spillane and Jack Gibbens, and defensive lineman Milton Williams could return for them this week. Dolphins center Aaron Brewer is a key to their rushing attack and would present a plus if he’s back after missing last Sunday’s win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Edge: Even

When the Patriots run: New England rookie running back TreVeyon Henderson is a much bigger part of the offense now than he was when these two teams met in Week 2. He only got three carries then. Now, he leads the Patriots’ rushing attack with 858 yards and a 5.1 average this season. He brings speed in the backfield, while Rhamondre Stevenson is a bulldozer. It’s a strong 1-2 punch to form the league’s No. 13 rushing offense, which also has quarterback Drake Maye a threat to run.

Stopping the run is critical for the Dolphins. They’re 5-0 when they hold an opponent under 100 rushing yards. Miami is coming off its second-best performance against the run this season, limiting the Buccaneers to 53 rushing yards. Rookie defensive tackle Kenneth Grant had his highest-graded performance by Pro Football Focus in the Bucs game. The availability of linebacker Jordyn Brooks, who enters Week 18 with a league lead in tackles, goes a long way in this effort. See if the Patriots try to run right plenty, behind guard Mike Onwenu and tackle Morgan Moses. Edge: Even

When the Dolphins pass: It’s start No. 3 for rookie quarterback Quinn Ewers. He just showed why he was the one coach Mike McDaniel went to upon benching Tua Tagovailoa two weeks ago, with a 14-of-22 performance for 172 yards and two touchdowns without an interception. Ewers operated the offense well, made plays when they presented themselves and even scrambled for a key first down late.

He’s had two home games under his belt and now has to face a top-10 pass defense in his first road start in the cold. Christian Gonzalez and Carlton Davis form a tough boundary cornerback duo, and safety Jaylinn Hawkins and nickel Marcus Jones are tied for the team lead with three interceptions. Top Dolphins wide receiver Jaylen Waddle is banged up this week with ailing ribs after being held without a catch against Tampa Bay. Ewers has been looking to some of the pass-catchers he has chemistry with from the scout team earlier this season, like tight end Greg Dulcich and undrafted rookie wide receiver Theo Wease, a duo which caught his two touchdowns.

Harold Landry, who always seems to have his best games against the Dolphins, leads the Patriots’ pass rush with 8 1/2 sacks, but his status is up in the air after missing last Sunday’s game against the Jets. Opposite him is K’Lavon Chaisson (6 1/2 sacks), so that’s the matchup for Dolphins left tackle Patrick Paul and right tackle Austin Jackson. Ewers took a couple of sacks last time out after he didn’t in his first start. Edge: Patriots

When the Patriots pass: Maye is putting together an MVP-caliber season, leading the league with a 71.7 completion percentage while throwing for 4,203 yards, 30 touchdowns and just eight interceptions. It’s got to be frustrating for Dolphins fans to see him in this division playing at this level after the Patriots had 20 years of Tom Brady, all while Josh Allen is in Buffalo and the Dolphins are likely in the process of parting ways with Tagovailoa.

His cast of pass-catchers are led by veteran Stefon Diggs, who enters with 970 receiving yards. Tight end Hunter Henry has a team-high seven touchdown catches. Mack Hollins went on IR recently, but fellow wideout Kayshon Boutte has had a breakout season of 527 receiving yards and six touchdowns. The Dolphins secondary was better last week after getting torched by Joe Burrow the previous game. Jack Jones has been inconsistent at cornerback on one side, but Rasul Douglas has been solid on the other. Rookie cornerback Jason Marshall Jr. was back in the nickel role in the Bucs game and came down with his first interception. Safety Ashtyn Davis had his first with the Dolphins, as Minkah Fitzpatrick’s status is in doubt with the calf injury that has cost him the past two games.

Dolphins edge rusher Bradley Chubb had a two-sack game against the Bucs that included a strip-sack on Baker Mayfield that earned him some contract incentives. He leads Miami with 8 1/2 sacks and may get a matchup with New England rookie left tackle and top draft pick Will Campbell if he’s able to return this week from IR. Edge: Patriots

Special teams: Last time these teams faced off in Week 2, Malik Washington returned a punt for a touchdown and, on the ensuing kickoff, Antonio Gibson took it back for the Patriots. New England has also returned two punts for touchdowns, and that franchise puts next-level emphasis on special teams, with a player like Brenden Schooler on the unit.

Despite Dolphins kicker Riley Patterson being more accurate than Patriots rookie and Miami alum Andy Borregales this season and punter Jake Bailey holding an edge on New England’s Bryce Baringer, you got to go with the Pats here overall. But let’s also shout out rookie defensive tackle Zeek Biggers for his pivotal blocked field goal vs. the Bucs. Edge: Patriots

Intangibles: The Dolphins are playing for pride, while the Patriots have a shot at the No. 1 seed. Even if the Chargers won’t comply with New England by putting forth their starters against the Denver Broncos, the Patriots have to win to stave off Jacksonville Jaguars for the No. 2 seed, which means home-field in a divisional-round matchup.

Meanwhile, coach Mike Vrabel is 2-0 against Mike McDaniel, and it’s a cold-weather game in Foxborough late in the season while Miami is playing a lot of youth. Edge: Patriots

PREDICTION: Patriots 27, Dolphins 17

Dolphins Deep Dive: Prediction time — can Miami spoil Patriots’ playoff seeding? | VIDEO

Read Entire Article