Where could Saints pick in the 2026 NFL draft after Week 18's games?

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Where could the New Orleans Saints pick in the 2026 NFL draft? It's not as easy a question to answer as you might think. For most of the year the Saints were locked into a top-two pick, but the move from Spencer Rattler to Tyler Shough at quarterback turned into five wins in the next eight weeks. Now, with one week to go, the Saints are projected to pick 8th overall.

And they're probably staying there. It's what the numbers say, at least. Doug Analytics simulated Week 18's games 50,000 times and found that the Saints picked at No. 8 in 76.8% of them. That's the lowest they can pick in the upcoming draft, but the lowest they could fall is No. 11, with less than half of a percent shot. That's because the Saints have a tiebreaking advantage over all but one of the six other teams that could share their record after Sunday. It's an advantage of a weak schedule.

Here are the probabilities for each of the Saints' four potential draft slots:

8th overall: 76.8%
9th overall: 16.8%
10th overall: 6.0%
12th overall: 0.4%

And here's the full chart for all 18 non-playoff teams:

So which games should Saints fans be tuning in for this weekend? Besides the Saints' rivalry game with the Atlanta Falcons (7-9, whose pick will go to the Los Angeles Rams), keep an eye on these matchups:

The likeliest scenario has the Saints staying at No. 8, with the Dolphins moving up to No. 9 and the Bengals rounding out the top-10. That puts the Bengals at No. 11 with the Buccaneers picking at No. 12. But we've seen the math be dispelled before. We'll be watching everything to see where New Orleans ends up in the 2026 NFL draft.

This article originally appeared on Saints Wire: 2026 NFL draft order: Games to watch for Saints fans in Week 18

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