Vikings Left with What-Ifs after Christmas Win

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After the Vikings’ impressive Christmas Day win over the Lions to sweep the season series, coupled with the Packers losing last Saturday night to the Ravens, Vikings owners, execs, coaches, and players are surely saying, “What if we just had one more win?”

If that were the case and the Vikings were 9-7 instead of 8-8 heading into Sunday’s regular-season finale at home against 9-6-1 Green Bay, this matchup would be for the final NFC playoff spot, which the Packers claimed when the Vikings knocked the Lions out with a 23-10 win.

Minnesota handled Detroit on Christmas, yet the broader NFC results turned the win into a source of tension, not relief, as tiebreakers and seeding scenarios refused to fall neatly into place.

I’ve been there in seasons where my Vikings teams fell just short of a playoff spot. As much as I wanted to say “it is what it is and it’s water under the bridge,” it was impossible for me not to think of a game or two (or more) that we should’ve won.

The Vikings’ Christmas Win Didn’t Bring Total Clarity. Just What-Ifs.

Yes, the Vikings had great opportunities to win close games against Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, and Baltimore, but I believe the Week 11 home loss to the Bears, which dropped the Vikings to 4-6, is the game that stands above the others in this what-if exercise.

As a sad reminder: the Vikings had a 17-16 lead with 50 seconds left after J.J. McCarthy’s TD pass to Jordan Addison. On the ensuing kickoff, three members of the coverage unit strayed out of their lanes to enable Devin Duvernay’s 56-yard cross-field return to set up the winning field goal for Chicago.

It’s a credit to Kevin O’Connell and the team that they’ve played hard and mostly well amid the current four-game winning streak. While the shutout over Washington and the road win in Dallas were impressive, beating the Lions to knock a division rival out of the playoff race was a better win, despite the offensive struggles in the passing game. The defensive performance was tremendous with the six turnovers against a Detroit team that had the fewest giveaways (8) in the league entering the game.

The biggest question this week for the Vikings is whether McCarthy’s injured hand will be sufficiently healed to allow him to play. The Vikings would like him to have a tenth start and try to continue his late-season progress while getting revenge for the 23-6 Week 12 loss in Green Bay when McCarthy threw two interceptions, was sacked five times, and passed for only 25 yards in the second half (with a net of minus three yards after sack yardage).

The biggest question for the Packers is whether coach Matt LaFleur will sit key starters with his team locked into the NFC’s No. 7 seed. I expect him to rest key offensive players, such as QB Jordan Love (coming off a concussion that kept him out of the Ravens game), top RB Josh Jacobs, and WR Christian Watson, both of whom have battled injuries this season.

Ten wins is a meaningful achievement in the NFL, and LaFleur will want to get the win to reach 10-6-1 and also avoid entering the playoffs on a four-game losing streak. He’ll also try to keep his team healthy for a likely wild-card round game at Chicago next week, so if the game is not close late, he’ll pull starters who are not initially kept out. For the Vikings, a fifth straight victory to reach 9-8 for a winning record in a frustrating season (while going 4-2 in the NFC North with a win Sunday) also would be meaningful.

I’ll be back tomorrow to preview the Vikings-Packers game, but first, here’s my final look at the win over Detroit.

Here are my other reactions to the 23-10 victory to sweep the Lions:

1. Stopping the run and pressure on Goff: the Vikings won the rushing battle by a wider margin than in the Week 9 three-point win in Detroit (142-65 that day vs. 158-68 last week). The Vikings again stopped Pro Bowl back Jahmyr Gibbs (17 carries for 41 yards, 2.4 average). The D sacked Goff five times, forced him to throw two interceptions, and he had three fumbles lost (the five turnovers by Goff tied his career high).

The Lions were missing two starters on their O-line (tackle Taylor Decker and center Graham Glasgow, who didn’t start but did play). DC Brian Flores dialed up a 55% blitz rate, and Goff and his O-line didn’t handle the pressure.

2. Terrific games by Harrison Smith, Andrew Van Ginkel, and Blake Cashman on D: Smith had his best game of the season with one sack, two tackles-for-loss, two passes knocked down while blitzing, and his 39th career interception, the most of any active player. He made a great play as he stepped in front of Goff’s pass to Amon-Ra St. Brown.

The 36-year-old Smith has pondered retirement in the past, but he should return in 2026 if he and the team feel he can continue to play at the elite level he showed last week.

Vikings LB Blake Cashman in 2025 on Christmas.

Van Ginkel’s great game featured five tackles, two fumble recoveries, one forced fumble (with Dallas Turner on a sack), 1 1/2 sacks, one tackle-for-loss, and two QB hits.

Cashman had 17 tackles, one sack, and one tackle-for-loss. His 137 tackles lead the team despite missing the first four games.

All three of these players missed several games early this season, which hurt the defense in costly losses, as their playmaking and veteran leadership were sorely missed.

3. The Vikings had the fewest net passing yds (3) of any winning team in Vikings history and the fewest by a winning NFL team since 2006.

Max Brosmer’s dismal performance against the league’s 25th-ranked pass defense was partially due to missing three starters on the offensive line—tackles Christian Darrisaw and Brian O’Neill, and center Ryan Kelly. The only good news from his unproductive day (9 of 16 for 51 yards, sacked seven times, Vikings 3 of 13 on third down) was that he didn’t turn the ball over compared to the four picks he threw in Seattle.

It was only his second career start, but his performance reinforced the belief that the Vikings must sign or trade for a better No. 2 QB next season, with Carson Wentz not the answer either.

4. It was absurd that the Vikings led only 13-10 in the fourth quarter despite being plus-five in the turnover ratio. Jordan Addison’s 65-yard jet sweep TD to make it 20-10 was a great play call by O’Connell, but for Addison and Jalen Nailor to have only one target and no catches is something that should never happen.

Justin Jefferson had four catches for 30 yds to pass Randy Moss for most receiving yards in an NFL player’s first six seasons. He still needs 53 yards against the Packers to achieve his sixth straight thousand-plus yard season. He’ll probably need McCarthy back in the lineup to do so.

5. Another great game for Will Reichard: the Pro Bowl snub made three more field goals (two from 50 + and he’s now made 11 of 13 from 50 + this season).

6. Other interesting numbers: after allowing the Lions’ third-ranked offense (entering the game) only 231 total yards (139 yards below their season average), the Vikings D is now sixth-ranked and third against the pass. 16 of the 23 Vikings’ points came off turnovers.

It was the first season sweep over Detroit since 2020.

The Vikings avoided penalties with only three for 20 yards, which always helps the cause.

Around the NFL Observations from Week 16

1. The two top teams in the NFC North both lost as their defenses struggled. The 11-5 Bears battled the 49ers down to the final play in the Sunday night game before Caleb Williams was pressured and threw incomplete. Chicago’s defense gave up 496 total yards, including 303 passing yards and five total TDs to Brock Purdy, who overcame a Pick Six on the first play of the game.

The Packers’ 41-24 loss to the Ravens clinched the Bears’ division title. Green Bay’s 11th-ranked defense has not been the same since Micah Parsons tore his ACL in Denver two weeks ago. With Tyler Huntley replacing the injured Lamar Jackson, Baltimore gashed the Green Bay D for 307 rushing yards, led by Derrick Henry with 216 yards and four TDs.

If the Bears win at home against the Lions on Sunday, they will host the Packers in the wild-card round. Each team won at home in its two meetings this season.

2. In a bad weather game in Buffalo on Sunday, Josh Allen missed an open receiver on a two-point conversion attempt to give the Eagles a 13-12 win. The Bills’ loss handed the Patriots their first AFC East title since 2019 (ending the Bills’ five-year run as division champs).

3. There are four division titles and the top seeds in each conference still up for grabs this weekend. Seattle at San Francisco will decide the NFC West title and the top NFC seed on Saturday night. Baltimore is at Pittsburgh on Sunday night in the game that will determine the AFC North champ after the Steelers’ road loss at Cleveland kept the Ravens alive.

Carolina travels to Tampa Bay on Saturday with the lackluster NFC South title on the line. Jacksonville clinches the AFC South over Houston with a home win over Tennessee on Sunday. The Jaguars can claim the top AFC seed with a win and losses by both Denver (at home vs. the Chargers, who beat them in their first matchup) and New England (hosting Miami). The Broncos hold the tie-breaker over the Patriots for the No. 1 seed if both teams win.

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