Trevor Lawrence's red-zone rushing production and more stats that defined the fantasy football season

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The 2025 fantasy football season has officially come to a close. Fantasy analyst Joel Smyth will go over eight important statistics that defined the season. There was no shortage of notable stats this year. What numbers from this season do you need to know — that your leaguemates may miss?

70%

Of Trevor Lawrence’s rushing fantasy points that came in the red zone this season. The average for NFL QBs is 46%, but a handful of quarterback values this season dominated in red-zone rushing, which brought out their true ceiling. With Liam Coen building Jacksonville’s new offense, Lawrence not only broke out as a passer, but saw his rushing fantasy PPG increase from 3.0 to 5.4, the third-best in the NFL. Second-best was Jaxson Dart, who led the league in red-zone rushing attempts per game, the only player with more than Josh Allen. Brock Purdy had 72% of his rushing points in the red zone and 61% for Bo Nix. This stat masks flaws and provides a season-changing ceiling.

Quarterbacks who don’t run as much in the red zone still have good floors, but may not have as good a ceiling as perceived. Justin Herbert had the third-most rushing fantasy points outside of the red zone, but inside, he ranked 15th. Once they get to the goal-line, the Chargers (and Harbaugh historically) shift to their RBs. Others that have similar numbers include Baker Mayfield and C.J. Stroud.

28+

Defensive PPG allowed by Dallas, Cincinnati and Arizona. Horrible defenses equaled fantasy gold on the opposite end. The main talk on defense this offseason was how grim it looked in Dallas, which delivered the QB6, WR5, WR9 and RB13 in PPG. The Bengals offense wasn’t perfect, but even with Joe Burrow injured, Ja’Marr Chase was the WR3 and Tee Higgins a top-12 wideout. If you can predict which defenses will be at the bottom in the NFL, fantasy points on the other side can be in abundance.

It works mid-season as well. The Cardinals were 29th in PPG allowed, mainly because they allowed 33.0 PPG in the second half of the season. Along with it came league-winner Michael Wilson and the TE1 overall, Trey McBride. When looking for value in fantasy, knowing the other side of the ball is valuable as well.

End-zone targets for Davante Adams in 2025, 10 more than any other player, despite the Rams WR missing the end of the season. Of the top five players in end zone targets this season, there were a wide range of results and side effects. Adams heavily limited Kyren Williams’ and Puka Nacua’s TD upside after signing in free agency. However, 49% of Adams' fantasy points this season came on his end-zone targets alone, meaning if that number were to dip from his extreme amount, he wouldn’t be the WR9 for long.

There is a similar concern for McBride, who was second with 18, especially if Kyler Murray is back. Surprisingly, Justin Jefferson had the fourth-highest with 15 end-zone targets. That resulted in only 1.0 fantasy PPG compared to the other top-five WRs combining for six fantasy PPG. Those receivers are George Pickens and Courtland Sutton, two wideouts who have been near the top throughout their career.

289

Air yards per game for Patrick Mahomes this season. All offseason, the Chiefs were adamant about bringing back their downfield, aggressive passing attack. From 2023 to 2024, Patrick Mahomes ranked last in average depth of throw at only 6.4 yards. That jumped back up to 8.1 yards in 2025, the ninth-highest in the league. The reports were true, and Mahomes' fantasy stock finally bounced back with it. Kansas City ranked first in pass rate over expected this season, tossing Mahomes to fourth in air yards, and coincidentally, fourth in fantasy PPG.

It was a major change needed for the former MVP who had failed to hit his ADP for six straight seasons. Monitoring offseason reports paid off once again.

0.55

Ashton Jeanty’s average yards before contact, the second-lowest in the NFL. The talent is there, but that was about it. Rookie running backs are risky, especially in Round 1 of fantasy drafts. When it comes to this year’s backs, most of the fault should be placed elsewhere. The only offensive line ranked lower in yards before contact than Las Vegas was Cleveland. The talent can shine through at moments, but the consistency is nowhere close.

When it comes to Jeanty, Quinshon Judkins and even Omarion Hampton in fantasy next season, it may be a situation mentioned earlier, where emotions cloud judgment. If the situations fail to improve, I’ll pass. However, if any of their teams make offseason moves, as Jacksonville and Chicago did last summer, they can become the next fantasy stars. A great stat for Hampton and Jeanty specifically: all 10 RBs drafted inside the top 25 since 2015 have finished top-eight in PPG by Year 2. Even rookie busts like Bijan Robinson, Melvin Gordon and (to a lesser extent) Josh Jacobs bounced back in a big way their sophomore season.

6.47

Who is the most valuable player in fantasy this season? Well, statistically, it was Christian McCaffrey. This one’s for my baseball fans. CMC was the No. 1 overall player in fantasy WAR, a.k.a Wins Above Replacement. He came in at 6.47 wins over the average RB. McCaffrey has now finished as a top-two fantasy RB in five of the last eight seasons.

Can he do it again in 2026?

The point I see most often, by far, is that he took on too much volume to repeat again. I’m less of a believer in that. People point to Saquon Barkley’s NFL-leading 378 touches in 2024 and his massive dip this year. I’d say it was much more due to coaching changes and a decrease in offensive line play, not Barkley’s 13 extra touches over Bijan Robinson’s 365. McCaffrey is one touch away from 400 on the season. It’s a slight concern, but if he stays healthy, his receiving usage should keep him as great as ever. The 49ers' star running back is averaging under 4.0 yards per carry this season, making the efficiency dipping much less of a concern for a player like McCaffrey.

Scrambles for Drake Maye, the most in the NFL. His 9.9% scramble rate was also first as he only ranked 12th in dropbacks this season, despite playing every game. Unproven dual-threat quarterbacks are the perfect late-round flyer at QB, and Maye showed it once again. His 4.1 rushing fantasy PPG this season ranked sixth-best, helping propel him to the overall QB2 this season.

A key factor to watch next season is the Patriots’ schedule. It is widely known that the Patriots didn’t have the most difficult matchups this season, causing Maye to play only 14 snaps per game in the fourth quarter, the fourth-fewest among quarterbacks. If New England is in closer games next season, Maye’s value could grow even greater as his rushing could continue to increase.

44%

Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s percentage of Seattle’s receiving yards, the most by a team’s WR since 2012 Brandon Marshall in Chicago. Some do it on volume, some do it on touchdowns; JSN did it on some of the best efficiency you will ever see. He was targeted downfield consistently and often, but had a catch rate of 73%, ranking eighth of 74 WRs. His ADOT of 11.2 yards makes it more impressive than the seven WRs above him, as none had an average depth of target over 10 yards downfield.

Smith-Njigba’s transition to the outside under new offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak unlocked the ceiling that people sought after on draft day. He had the fourth-highest target share in the NFL on throws of 20+ air yards, the focus of Kubiak’s downfield play-action offense. If Kubiak stays in Seattle for 2026 with Sam Darnold, I’d be comfortable taking JSN in Round 1.

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