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Prediction markets show traders clustering around a $2 billion–$3 billion range, with odds for $4 billion and $6 billion outcomes falling steadily after October's crash.
Dec 30, 2025, 9:51 a.m.
Lighter’s LIT token has not yet begun open trading, but the market has already drawn a sharp line around its valuation after Tuesday's airdrop.
Traders are split on whether the new governance token of the Ethereum-based Layer 2 decentralized exchange (DEX) deserves a fully diluted valuation closer to $2 billion or $3 billion.
Fully diluted valuation, or FDV, estimates a token’s total market value by multiplying its price by the maximum possible supply if all tokens were issued and circulating.
Premarket trading has placed LIT near $3.20, implying an FDV above $3 billion, according to CoinMarketCap, while prediction markets tell a more cautious story.
Recent low-float launches like Monad, EigenLayer, and Movement inflated headline valuations into the billions even as most tokens remain locked, leaving FDV to act less as a proxy for real demand and more as a forward-looking estimate that can be easily distorted without close attention to liquidity and tokenomics.
On Polymarket, traders see roughly even odds that LIT exceeds a $3 billion fully diluted valuation a day after launch, while expectations for $4 billion and $6 billion outcomes have faded, with market data showing those higher price targets collapsing after October’s crash.
In comparison, Hyperliquid's HYPE token debuted at around a $4.2 billion FDV last November.
Dune data shows Lighter has averaged about $2.7 billion in daily perpetuals volume over the past week, placing it behind only Hyperliquid and Aster.
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