Rookie RBs teach a lesson in patience, and more storylines that defined the 2025 fantasy football season

1 week ago 2

Now that the fantasy season has come and gone, fantasy football analyst Joel Smyth goes through seven storylines that defined the 2025 season. What can fantasy managers learn for next August?

New Playcallers Controlled the Booms & Busts

An absolutely crucial part of the fantasy offseason that is often overlooked is who the playcallers of NFL teams are, specifically the new ones. The risk of a new offensive playcaller led to an array of early-round busts and late-round gems once again in 2025. The key positive examples from this season include Ben Johnson igniting the Bears offense, Kellen Moore unlocking fantasy WR1 Chris Olave, Liam Coen turning Trevor Lawrence into a top-three fantasy QB and reviving Travis Etienne Jr. and Klint Kubiak making Jaxon Smith-Njigba a 2026 first-round pick.

However, as often as changes are positive, those changes are a risk for a reason. Moore to the Saints meant Saquon Barkley and Jalen Hurts were left behind in a stagnant Eagles offense. Although Coen sparked the Jaguars in Jacksonville, he left Bucs QB Baker Mayfield and company to fall off dramatically. It can even be position-dependent, as 2024 RB1 Kenneth Walker III lost significant volume with Kubiak coming in as the new playcaller.

Ultimately, the coaching changes lead me to the general understanding of the following: a clear potential upgrade at playcaller (Jacksonville, Chicago, New Orleans, etc.) are goldmines for late-round steals in comparison to other late-drafted players. The opposite is true as well. Oftentimes, the early-round players can become this year’s busts with an offensive overhaul, changing their once ideal situation to, at least, something new.

If the new changes don’t fit in just as nicely, even stars like Barkley can fall.

Rookie RBs Useless Early, Great Late

2025 was, overall, not the year to draft a rookie RB. This season was a perfect example of the risk of the unknown while also showing glimpses of why we seem to take that risk every August. It’s worked plenty of times before; Barkley, Ezekiel Elliott, Jahmyr Gibbs, Bucky Irving, etc. — all league-winning running backs from Year 1. After Ashton Jeanty was a 2025 Round 1 bust and no other rookie back shone until late in the season, most managers struggled to make the playoffs going down the rookie path this year. However, those who survived were rewarded for their patience. Rookies need time, and when it works, it usually works extremely well.

In the second half of the season, all four of the top rookie RBs ranked inside the top-15 in fantasy. RJ Harvey was the RB10 as a starter, TreVeyon Henderson the RB6 when starting, (taking out his concussion game) Omarion Hampton RB8 in PPG after Week 2 and Ashton Jeanty had an up-and-down RB16 season with a star performance in Round 2 of the playoffs.

The lessons from this are the same as they’ve always been. One: rookie RBs are drafted for the end of the season, not month No. 1; plan accordingly. Two: situation is just as important as talent. Three: it’s usually unwise to draft players close to their projected ceiling, especially ones we haven’t seen before (Jeanty).

Bust Recovery Therapy

I treat fantasy football like a strategy game. At the end of the day, don’t play with emotions, play with your brain. Yet, far too often, fantasy players' grudges of the past play the biggest role in their future decisions. I’ve already seen people saying they will never draft the RB4, Jahmyr Gibbs, because of his performance in the fantasy championship.

In 2025, however, the exact opposite strategy paid off immensely. A number of the best values in the draft came from 2024 busts who had fallen way too far down draft boards. Just to name a few: ADP RB30, Travis Etienne Jr.; ADP RB36, Javonte Williams; ADP WR35, Chris Olave; and seventh overall pick, Christian McCaffrey.

The key to choosing the right ones often comes after asking one simple question: have things changed? If players' situations don’t change for the better, such as Garrett Wilson or Marvin Harrison Jr, then it’s easier to pass if their ADP isn’t dropping very low. The opposite would be someone like Travis Etienne Jr., who finished as the RB3 in 2023. One bad season in 2024 and he dropped to ADP RB30, despite having a completely revamped offensive line and Coen, a playcaller who produced multiple top-24 fantasy RBs the year prior. In general, if a player has played amazingly up until the year before, like ADP WR47 Michael Pittman Jr. being top-20 in three straight seasons, they are an ideal process flyer.

So, in 2026, I am ready to get hurt again.

Mid-Season Buys on Talent

It seemed riiiiiiiight as fantasy managers gave up hope, their top draft pick went on a run … most likely for another team. Lesson: if you have the affordability to be patient, buying high-end talent for dirt-cheap can pay off long-term. After starting the season as the RB34, Chase Brown was the RB6 the rest of the season after the Bengals traded for QB Joe Flacco. With A.J. Brown struggling through a new offensive system, the star WR averaged 9.7 PPG through six weeks. The rest of the season? Eighteen points flat. Tee Higgins, TreVeyon Henderson, Chris Olave and more — same story. If things begin to click, it pays off in a substantial way.

Late-Season Busts Off-Target Throw Percentage

Two of the biggest surprises of the season came in the second half: the fall off of Emeka Egbuka and Rome Odunze. Through five weeks, the young WRs were the WR3 (Egbuka) and WR4 (Odunze), poised to be the steals of fantasy drafts.

They ended WR28 and WR26.

The main reason is simple in theory: catch rate. The volume was there; they just weren’t catching the ball. Drops, yes, but more importantly, off-target throws. They are to blame as well, but a large part was an inconsistent Caleb Williams and injured Mayfield placing them at the bottom of all NFL wideouts in catchable target rate.

After Week 5, only 60% of Odunze’s targets were deemed catchable, the third-worst in the NFL. In last was Egbuka, at 53%. The connection and accuracy combined for rates that made it impossible to produce. Drops have surprisingly been positively correlated in fantasy football in the past, as getting volume outweighs the plays being failed to be made (for example, believe it or not, Malik Nabers led the NFL in drops last season).

Once again, though, QB play is the main factor driving fantasy WR success, and these two WRs saw their luck flip.

Rushing QB Value Hits Again

My first plan of attack every August: find the rushing QB who is being drafted late. Rushing upside is king in fantasy football, and every year, one or more players being drafted in the later rounds pay off in a big way for fantasy managers. Football fans in general need to see it before they believe it, and that’s what needs to be taken advantage of when it comes to fantasy football. Lamar Jackson in 2019, Josh Allen in 2020, Jalen Hurts in 2021, Justin Fields in 2022, Jayden Daniels in 2024 and many more. Like clockwork.

Last season, Drake Maye flashed late in the season and finished as the QB13 in PPG in his 12 starts. The offensive line was added to, skill players joined, new coaching entered and the sophomore QB taken third overall in the 2024 NFL Draft showed why he was chosen so early. Seventeen weeks later, and Maye was the QB steal of the draft and the overall fantasy QB2.

He wasn’t the only one, either. Jaxson Dart joined mid-way through the season as the rookie out of Ole Miss brought his red-zone rushing advantage to the table. Who’s next in 2026?

Projecting RB Volume Ranks

RB volume is the most important factor in fantasy football, but predicting it in August isn’t always so simple. Some of the best RB values were talented players who saw an increase in volume compared to last season. Jahmyr Gibbs avoided the fate David Montgomery saw without Ben Johnson this season, not purely because of his skill set, but because the offseason rumors of his potential volume came true. Gibbs’ RB14 volume rank in 2024 improved to RB4, helping him keep the same PPG despite the losses in the offseason.

Other examples included James Cook III, Travis Etienne Jr. and Javonte Williams. Etienne and Williams’ chance of bellcow volume alone, in hindsight, should have been enough to raise their ADP. Cook’s contract was not just a commitment financially. His volume rank improved from RB27 in 2024 to RB8 in 2025, more than enough to counterbalance some overproduction in 2024.

As always, the same can be said in reverse. If you were able to project the lack of volume for Kenneth Walker III, TreVeyon Henderson and Chuba Hubbard, it would’ve saved you some headaches, as talent was not the primary issue.

Read Entire Article