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Finding value in player props is one of the most consistent ways to beat the books. Each week, FTN highlights three props identified by our proprietary model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times. Below, you’ll see the posted line, FTN’s projection and the edge percentage, followed by context on why this prop makes sense. To see all the best props of the week, make sure you visit our prop tool.
Prop Bet 1: Jaxson Dart Over 205.5 Passing Yards
-115, BetMGM FTN Projection: 260.6 Edge: 21.3% Jaxson Dart gets an ideal opportunity to close the season strong in a favorable matchup against the Cowboys’ pass defense, which ranks last in the NFL by DVOA. Since moving on from Trevon Diggs, Dallas lacks the secondary personnel needed to hold up on the back end, creating a clear path for Dart to exceed this number through the air.
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Prop Bet 2: Chase Brown Under 61.5 Rushing Yards
-111, DraftKings FTN Projection: 42.8 Edge: 17.7% Chase Brown is coming off a productive performance, but this matchup is a major step up in difficulty. Cleveland ranks fifth in DVOA against the run and already held Brown to just 2.0 yards per carry earlier this season. With efficiency likely hard to come by, the under presents solid value at this number.
Track Every Pick in Real Time
This article is just the start. FTN subscribers can:
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Compare lines across the Prop Shop and Parlay Odds Shop.
FTN’s NFL Betting Resources
Final Thoughts
NFL betting is about finding small edges that add up over the course of the season. FTN’s Bet of the Week is just one example of the actionable insights our model delivers. Lock in this
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