Patriots’ chances of No. 1 playoff seed take a hit before Week 18

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The newly-minted AFC East champion New England Patriots are entering the final week of the NFL regular season tied for the best record in their conference. And yet, in order to end up as the owners of the No. 1 seed in the AFC and its associated playoff bye, they will need some help.

It looks like they might not get it.

For the Patriots to move up in the standings in Week 18, they will need to beat the Miami Dolphins while simultaneously hoping for the Denver Broncos to drop their home game to the Los Angeles Chargers. On paper, that does not seem like an entirely implausible scenario: while Denver is 13-3, the 11-5 Chargers are a playoff team in their own right and already beat their division rivals earlier in the year.

However, with the AFC West already decided in the Broncos’ favor, the Chargers have made the decision to take their foot off the gas this week. As head coach Jim Harbaugh explained on Monday, Pro Bowl quarterback Justin Herbert will be among multiple players not to appear in Sunday’s game; Trey Lance will serve as his team’s QB1.

“The guys that have the most bruises and need the most healing, we’ll pull them back,” Harbaugh said. “Justin Herbert would be one.”

With Herbert out and other starters possibly following, the Chargers upsetting the Broncos on the road seems like an unrealistic outcome. In turn, even if they beat the Dolphins to also finish 14-3, the Patriots would lose out on the top seed due to their inferior record against common opponents.

In full, the AFC playoff picture looks as follows with one week left.

Updated AFC playoff standings

Denver Broncos (13-3)
New England Patriots (13-3)
Jacksonville Jaguars (12-4)
Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7)
Houston Texans (11-5)
Los Angeles Chargers (11-5)
Buffalo Bills (11-5)

On the bubble: 9. Baltimore Ravens (8-8)

Eliminated: 8. Indianapolis Colts (8-8), 10. Miami Dolphins (7-9), 11. Cincinnati Bengals (6-10), 11. Kansas City Chiefs (6-10), 13. Cleveland Browns (4-12), 14. Tennessee Titans (3-13), 15. New York Jets (3-13). 16. Las Vegas Raiders (2-14)

While six of the seven playoff teams have already been determined, some questions sill are left to be answered in Week 18. One is the order of clubs, with no slot locked in as of yet. The other is who will end up as AFC North champions between the Steelers and Ravens and in turn enter the playoffs as the fourth seed.

At the moment, the Patriots would be hosting the Bills in the wild card round. There still is significant potential for change, though.

The NFC playoff picture, meanwhile, looks as follows:

Updated NFC playoff standings

Seattle Seahawks (13-3)
Chicago Bears (11-5)
Philadelphia Eagles (11-5)
Carolina Panthers (8-8)
San Francisco 49ers (12-4)
Los Angeles Rams (11-5)
Green Bay Packers (9-6-1)

On the bubble: 11. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-9)

Eliminated: 8. Minnesota Vikings (8-8), 9. Detroit Lions (8-8), 10. Dallas Cowboys (7-8-1), 12. Atlanta Falcons (7-9), 13. New Orleans Saints (6-10), 14. Washington Commanders (4-12), 15. Arizona Cardinals (3-13), 16. New York Giants (3-13)

Just like in the AFC, only one spot remains up for grabs in the NFC playoff picture: the fourth seed will be determined between the Panthers and Buccaneers. However, Tampa winning the NFC South is not a guarantee even if they defeat their division rivals on Saturday: Carolina would still end up as winners if the Falcons subsequently end up beating the Saints the next day.

Elsewhere, the different seeding positions are left to be determined, including the No. 1 seed. The Seahawks have the advantage now, but they will need to beat the 49ers on Saturday night to maintain their position atop the conference.

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