One Lions stat points to major bounce-back in 2026 season

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For Detroit fans looking for a pick-me-up, one Lions stat indicates that a big-time bounce-back could be on the horizon in 2026.

Despite entering the 2025 season as one of the Super Bowl favorites, the Lions have sunk to 8-8 and are eliminated from the playoffs as their Week 18 finale at the Chicago Bears arrives.

As the old football saying goes, "It's never as bad as it seems, and it's never as good as it seems." To any Detroit doubters, FTN Fantasy's Aaron Schatz provided some optimism for next season.

According to Schatz, the Lions' DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) in 2025 ranks second all-time among teams with 8-8 records from 1978-2025.

Of the best 8-8 DVOA teams across that stretch, three made the Super Bowl the following season. That trio includes the 2007 New York Giants, who famously denied New England perfection with the Giants' 17-14 victory in Super Bowl XLII. It also includes the 2009 New Orleans Saints that beat the Indianapolis Colts in Super Bowl XLIV, 31-17.

The 1994 San Diego Chargers also advanced to the Super Bowl, but they fell to the San Francisco 49ers, 49-26.

So, what exactly is DVOA?

DVOA measures a team’s efficiency by comparing success on every single play to a league average based on situation and opponent.

It takes every single play during the NFL season and compares each one to a league-average baseline based on situation. DVOA measures not just yardage, but yardage towards a first down.

For instance, five yards on third-and-4 are worth more than five yards on first-and-10 and much more than five yards on third-and-12. Performance is also adjusted for the quality of the opponent. DVOA is a percentage, so a team with a DVOA of 10.0% is 10% better than the average team.

Why should you care?

To put it simply, efficiency metrics really like this Lions team compared to the rest of the league despite what its record says. The Lions' 2025 DVOA ranks third in the NFL, behind only the Los Angeles Rams and Seattle Seahawks.

Some other numbers, such as point differential, indicate that the Lions aren't as bad as their record might say. Detroit ranks ninth in the NFL in point differential at +65. Each of the eight teams ranked in front of the Lions in point differential are set to be playoff teams in 2025.

It's a nice illustration of why the Lions will be a trendy offseason bounce-back candidate in 2026. With a clean bill of health, some hits in the upcoming 2026 NFL draft and a few good free agency moves, the Lions can realistically be right back toward the top of the NFC North and in contention in 2026.

Right now, any NFL history that shows that it can be done and that it has been done from the Lions' current position to the following season is a welcome sight in the Motor City.

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This article originally appeared on Lions Wire: One Lions stat points to major bounce-back in 2026 season

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