Ohio State vs Oregon Prediction, Picks & Odds for Tonight's College Basketball Game

A coast to coast conference battle will take place when Ohio State travels west to face Oregon tonight.

These two teams have only met once in recent memory with Oregon grabbing a win in Columbus. Ohio State will look to avenge that loss this season while getting its third win in four games in the process.

I break it all down in my Ohio State vs. Oregon predictions & college basketball picks for Thursday, January 8.

Advertisement

Ohio State vs Oregon prediction

Ohio State vs Oregon best bet: Ohio State +3 (-105)

I’ll take the Ohio State Buckeyes here in a game that I see as close to a pick. The travel for the Buckeyes shouldn’t be ignored but neither should the matchup advantages OSU possesses. 

They have a cleaner offensive profile and identity than their opponent arriving at this game with strong shooting numbers from inside but more importantly on the road, a top 20% rate of getting to the line.

That’s big when you do the little things well and play a team that is on an even talent footing with you. That's certainly the case tonight.

From a tactical perspective, they’re scoring 1.25 points per possession on big cutting actions along with 1.29 PPP on Perimeter Cuts, and it’s not just one guy doing it.

Advertisement

Bruce Thornton is crushing rim pressure while John Mobley Jr. brings the spacing and quick-trigger creation, and even Christoph Tilly pops as a real connector.

Unfortunately for the Oregon Ducks, this lines up with the direct weaknesses of their defense this season. The Ducks have allowed nearly a point per possession on big cutting actions which is well above the national average of .86. 

Where they’ve really leaked is when possessions break structure, particularly on second chance points or transition.

If Mobley/Thornton push after long misses or scramble situations, OSU’s efficiency can travel. Judging by what we’ve seen this season, I think it will. I’d play this to +1.5.

Advertisement

Ohio State vs Oregon same-game parlay

Naturally this is directly connected to our best bet, Ohio State should be able to have some success with its bigs cutting to the basket and this is the best way to capture that.

Tilly is their top scorer in that area, posting 1.39 PPP on those plays. Mobley also shows up as one of the key creators within that structure, grading well as a pick-and-roll passer, which is the simplest assist source for him in this matchup.

Ohio State vs Oregon SGP

• Ohio State +3
  

• John Mobley Over 2.5 assists
  

• Christoph Tilly Over 12.5 points

Our beyond the arc SGP: Buckeyes lockdown defense

I projected a single point of value with the Under and I’m fine using it to wrap up my same-game parlay.

Advertisement

The profile and tempo of this matchup suggest that it’s mostly played in the halfcourt. Ohio State’s defense is the driving force here.

They’re allowing just 0.72 PPP on attack + kick actions, which is a big chunk of the Ducks offense. If Oregon’s forced into more self-created jumpers, that’s usually where scoring dries up.

Ohio State vs Oregon SGP

• Ohio State +3
  

• John Mobley Over 2.5 assists
  

• Christoph Tilly Over 12.5 points
  

• Under 152.5

Ohio State vs Oregon odds

• Spread: Ohio State +2.5 (-115) | Oregon -2.5 (-105)

• Moneyline: Ohio State +120 | Oregon -140

• Over/Under: Over 152.5 (-110) | Under 152.5 (-110)

Ohio State vs Oregon betting trend to know

Oregon has hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 20 games at home (+5.25 Units / 3% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Ohio State vs. Oregon.

Advertisement

How to watch Ohio State vs Oregon

Ohio State vs Oregon key injuries

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here