No. 6 Ole Miss vs. No. 10 Miami prediction: Updated Odds, picks, best bets, player props for CFP Semifinal

5 days ago 2

No. 10 seed Miami will face No. 6 seed Ole Miss tonight in Arizona in the first semifinal of this season's College Football Playoff.

The Canes roll into Glendale riding a six-game winning streak highlighted by last week's upset of the defending champion Ohio State Buckeyes. Mark Fletcher Jr. picked up 90 yards on 19 carries and also caught two passes for 25 yards including a touchdown to pace the attack in Maimi's 24-14 win.

Ole Miss earned their biggest win of the season last week as well, gaining a measure of revenge for a regular season loss to Georgia with a 39-34 win. Trinidad Chambliss threw for 362 yards and a couple touchdowns. Down nine at the half and behind by five in the fourth quarter, the Rebeles rallied behind Chambliss to earn a berth in the Final Four.

Lets take a closer look at each school on both sides of the ball, highlight a handful of players, and find a best bet or two.

Game Details and How to Watch: Miami vs. Ole Miss

Date: Thursday, January 8, 2025
Time: 7:30PM Eastern
Site: State Farm Stadium
City: Glendale, AZ
TV/Streaming: ESPN

Game Odds for Miami vs. Ole Miss

The latest odds as of Thursday courtesy of DraftKings:

Moneyline: Miami Hurricanes (-170), Ole Miss Rebels (+142)
Spread: Miami -3.5 (-102)
Total: 52.5 points

Be sure to check out DraftKings for all the latest game odds & player props for every matchup this week on the college football schedule!

Miami Hurricanes

Head Coach: Mario Cristobal
2025 Record: 12-2
Offense Ranking: 21
Defense Ranking: 6
Strength of Schedule: 14

Miami’s 2025 season marked a clear step forward under Mario Cristobal, entering the CFP Semifinal 12–2 overall with 11.2 second order wins and a Top 10 SP+ résumé. The Hurricanes paired a steady, efficiency-based offense (21st in Offensive SP+) with a legitimately smothering defense (6th in Defensive SP+), allowing them to control games even when explosiveness waned. Miami opened the year with statement wins over Notre Dame and Florida, weathered midseason losses to Louisville and SMU, then plowed through the CFP with signature victories over Texas A&M and Ohio State that validated their national profile. Defensively, the Hurricanes were relentless, ranking Top 10 in EPA allowed, points per drive, and havoc rate, while consistently winning field position and forcing opponents into long, low-probability drives. Offensively, Miami leaned on ball security, pass efficiency, and strong protection metrics rather than big-play volume, finishing top-30 in EPA per play and yards per dropback. The end result was a battle-tested, balanced team that firmly reestablished Miami as a national title contender.

The Miami Hurricanes Offense

Miami’s offense in 2025 was built on efficiency, ball security, and strong pass protection rather than sheer explosiveness, finishing 21st in Offensive SP+ and 22nd in EPA per play. The Hurricanes ranked Top 15 nationally in passing success rate and completion percentage, pairing accurate quarterback play with one of the nation’s lowest pressure rates allowed and a Top 10 total blown block rate. While the rushing attack was more workmanlike than dominant, Miami consistently stayed on schedule, ranking Top 25 in standard-down success rate and limiting negative plays to a Top 5 rate nationally. Explosiveness was more selective, with a below-average rate of 20+ yard plays (6.1%: 83rd), but the offense compensated by sustaining drives and finishing efficiently in scoring territory (27th RZ TD rate). Overall, Miami’s offense functioned as a controlled, high-floor unit that complemented its defense by minimizing mistakes and consistently winning the efficiency battle.

Miami Player to Watch on Offense: QB Carson Beck

Carson Beck’s 2025 profile reflects a quarterback who thrived on volume and efficiency, finishing with 3,311 yards, 27 touchdowns, and a 74.2% completion rate across 399 attempts while posting a solid 76.7 overall offensive grade. When kept clean, Beck was lethal, completing 77.1% of his throws for over 3,000 yards with an 84.1 passing grade, highlighting his comfort operating on schedule and carving defenses that couldn’t generate disruption. Pressure was the clear divider: under duress his completion rate dipped to 51.1% with a much lower 51.5 passing grade, yet he still showed aggressiveness downfield with a 14.1 aDOT. Beck’s passing depth profile underscores his vertical upside, as he generated 756 yards and 12 touchdowns on deep throws (20+ yards) with a respectable 84.9 passing grade, while remaining efficient on short and behind-the-line throws with completion rates north of 83%. Conceptually, he was at his best off play action, completing nearly 78% of those attempts with an 81.0 passing grade and 8.9 yards per attempt, consistently punishing linebackers who stepped up. Taken together, Beck’s data paints the picture of a poised distributor with legitimate downfield juice, whose ceiling rises sharply when kept clean and allowed to operate within a play-action-driven structure.

The Miami Hurricanes Defense

Miami’s defense in 2025 has been the catalyst of its playoff run, finishing sixth nationally in Defensive SP+ and 8th in EPA allowed per play while consistently controlling game flow. The Hurricanes were elite at creating disruption, ranking Top 5 nationally in pressure rate and sacks per dropback while also finishing sixth in overall Havoc Rate, driven by strong defensive line and defensive back production. Against the run, Miami paired a 36% rushing success rate allowed (9th) with a pristine 0.30 yards before contact average (3rd), limiting opponents’ ability to stay ahead of the chains. In coverage, the defense held opposing quarterbacks to a 30.5 Raw QBR (5th) and ranked 12th in yards per dropback allowed, particularly excelling against explosive passes (9th). While tackling efficiency was more inconsistent than the underlying efficiency metrics (116th), Miami’s defense consistently tightened in scoring situations and finished drives, making it one of the most reliable units in the ACC.

Miami Player to Watch on Defense: Edge Reuben Bain

Reuben Bain Jr. put together a complete, high-impact season as the centerpiece of Miami’s front, finishing with 60 tackles, 16.5 tackles for loss, and 8.5 sacks while posting an elite 90.9% tackle rate across 14 games. His 21 havoc plays placed him as the most disruptive defender on the roster, pairing consistent backfield penetration with strong run integrity, as evidenced by his 79.3% run-tackle rate and eight credited run stops. As a pass rusher, Bain generated 55 total pressures on 419 rushes, good for a sterling 13.1% pressure rate, while creating 10 sacks overall and forcing a fumble in the process. He consistently won early in downs, recording a first pressure on 45 snaps with an average time-to-pressure of 2.71 seconds, underscoring his explosiveness off the ball. Bain’s production came within the context of a dominant Miami defense that finished with a 92.6 overall defensive grade and a 92.1 pass-rush grade, amplifying the value of his edge presence. Taken together, Bain’s profile reflects a rugged, every-down defensive end who combined power, effort, and finishing ability to anchor one of the ACC’s most disruptive defensive fronts.

Ole Miss Rebels

Head Coach: Pete Golding (took over for Lane Kiffin)
2025 Record: 13-1
Offense Ranking: 2
Defense Ranking: 18
Strength of Schedule: 43

Ole Miss blasted through 2025 with a 13-1 (7-1) record and a SP+ rank of No. 5, pairing an elite No. 2 offense with a defense that was solid enough (No. 18) to let the vaunted Rebels offense keep the pedal down. The Rebels’ underlying profile screams dominance, as they finished Top 10 nationally in yards per drive (43.0, 4th) and points per drive (3.19, 8th) while playing at a blistering tempo (23.8 seconds per play, 11th). Efficiency carried the day, as Ole Miss is Top 10 in passing success rate (52.0%, 4th) and yards per dropback (8.7, 7th), complemented by a capable rushing attack that kept the chains moving even if it wasn’t built on pure boom plays. The schedule produced numerous emphatic victories, with the lone blemish in Athens (35-43) before the Rebels turned around and beat Georgia in the postseason (39-34). Defensively, Pete Golding’s group isn’t built on disruption (15.5% havoc rate, 81st), yet it was sturdy on a down-to-down basis, holding opponents to 1.68 points per drive (34th) with respectable coverage results (56.3% completion rate allowed, 18th). Put it all together and the Rebels are talented enough to trade punches with the nation’s best—then land the last blow when it matters most.

The Ole Miss Rebels Offense

Ole Miss’ offense was the engine of its 13-1 season, sitting at 2nd nationally in SP+ offense and consistently dictating games with tempo, efficiency, and balance. The Rebels rank 4th in passing success rate (52.0%), 7th in yards per dropback (8.7), and 12th in adjusted net yards per attempt (10.8), underscoring how departed HC Lane Kiffin and current offensive playcaller Charlie Weis’ attack stressed defenses vertically while staying on schedule. That aerial efficiency translated directly to scoring, as Ole Miss is 8th in points per drive (3.19) and 4th in yards per drive (43.0) while running one of the nation’s fastest-paced units at 11th in seconds per play (23.8). The run game wasn’t explosive-heavy but remained functional, ranking 33rd in rushing success rate and helping the offense convert 10th-best down-set conversion rate (79.3%), keeping the playbook wide open. Overall, this was a ruthlessly efficient, tempo-driven offense built to maximize possessions, win passing downs (7th nationally), and overwhelm opponents with sustained pressure rather than relying solely on big-play ability (13th in plays of 20+).

Ole Miss Player to Watch on Offense: QB Trinidad Chambliss

Trinidad Chambliss put together an NFL-translatable passing profile by winning across concepts, depths, and pressure looks rather than leaning on scheme freebies. He completed 66.4% of his throws for 3,657 yards, 21 touchdowns, and just three interceptions, pairing a strong 84.9 passing grade with an 8.6 aDOT that reflects a willingness to push the ball beyond the sticks. Chambliss was especially lethal throwing deep, earning an elite 96.7 passing grade on 20+ yard attempts while averaging 19.3 yards per attempt, a clear indicator of vertical accuracy and confidence. Structurally, he thrived both with and without play action, posting an 80.9 passing grade on play-action and an even stronger 82.1 grade without it, showing the production wasn’t system-dependent. Pressure didn’t break him either, as Chambliss maintained a 79.0 overall grade under pressure and still averaged 8.4 yards per attempt, limiting negative plays while keeping his eyes downfield. The full picture is that of a poised, aggressive distributor who consistently punished coverage mistakes, handled heat competently, and demonstrated the layered passing skill set teams look for when projecting quarterbacks to the next level.

The Ole Miss Rebels Defense

Ole Miss’ defense complemented its high-powered offense by playing solid, situationally effective football, finishing 18th nationally in SP+ defense and holding opponents to 1.68 points per drive (34th). While not a dominant havoc unit overall (81st in Havoc Rate), the Rebels were disciplined and structurally sound, ranking 26th in passing success rate allowed (36.5%) and limiting explosive gains to 5.5% of plays (38th). The pass defense was particularly effective in high-leverage moments, allowing just 14.3% completions of 20+ yards and holding opposing quarterbacks to a middling 52.2 Raw QBR. Up front, Ole Miss generated pressure at a respectable clip (5.3% DL havoc rate, 30th), helping offset a modest 61st-ranked sack rate per dropback. Overall, Pete Golding’s unit leaned on pressure, containment, and red-zone resilience rather than turnovers or splash plays, providing a steady backbone for their CFP playoff run.

Ole Miss Player to Watch on Defense: Edge Suntarine Perkins

Suntarine Perkins emerged as Ole Miss’ most complete edge defender, combining volume production with efficiency across run defense, coverage, and pass rush. He logged 77 total tackles with an excellent 89.5% tackle rate, while nearly 70% of his tackles came against the run, underscoring his reliability setting the edge and cleaning up inside. Perkins generated 20 havoc plays, including 11.5 tackles for loss and 3.0 sacks, giving the Rebels a consistent disruptor who could win early downs without selling out structurally. As a pass rusher, he produced 18 pressures on 124 rushes (14.5% pressure rate), added a forced fumble, and showed real situational juice with a 23.7% pressure rate on third downs. His versatility showed up in coverage as well, recording an interception and five pass breakups, allowing the defense to stay flexible with pressure packages and personnel groupings. Overall, Perkins played like a true modern OLB—dependable versus the run, opportunistic in coverage, and disruptive enough as a blitzer to tilt downs.

Miami and Ole Miss: Team Stats and Betting Trends

Carson Beck has completed at least 70% of his passes each of his last 5 games
Beck’s Y/A, though, has been just 5.2 and 5.3 respectively through 2 playoff games
Trinidad Chambliss has throw for at least 282 yards in each of his last 5 games
Chambliss has thrown 1 INT in his last 5 games
Miami is 9-5 ATS this season
Ole Miss is 9-5 ATS this season
The OVER has cashed in 7 of Ole Miss’ 14 games this season (7-7)
The OVER has cashed in 5 of Miami’s 14 games this season (5-9)
These schools have not met on the gridiron since 1951.

Rotoworld Best Bets

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Eric Froton (@CFFroton): Trinidad Chambliss OVER 255.5 Passing Yards

Since transferring from DII Ferris State and taking over for opening game starter Austin Simmons, Chambliss has utterly dominated his advanced competition. The reigning SEC newcomer of the year and Second Team All-SEC signal caller has thrown for at least 250 passing yards in every game this season except for Ole Miss’ 30-14 victory over South Carolina where they torched the Gamecocks for rushing 258 yards in a ball-control oriented contest. He avenged Ole Miss’ lone defeat to Georgia in style, ripping the Dawgs for 362 passing yards in a momentous Round 2 victory. With Miami being extremely difficult to beat on the ground, I expect Trinidad Chambliss to crank up the pass attack and clear his current 255.5 Passing Yards line, as he has in all but two of his starts this season.

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Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the college football calendar based on data points like past performance, player matchups, stadium information and weather forecasts.

Once the model is finished running, we put its projection next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.

Best Bets our model is projecting for the College Football Playoff Semifinal between Ole Miss and Miami

Moneyline: Rotoworld Bet is staying away from a play on the Moneyline.
Spread: Rotoworld Bet is recommending a play ATS on the Miami Hurricanes -3.
Total: Rotoworld Bet is leaning towards a play on the Game Total UNDER 51.5.

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