NFL playoff picture: Bucs are NFC South champs and No. 4 seed ... if Falcons win Sunday

5 days ago 2

Here's how things look heading into the regular-season finale of Week 18:

(* Clinched playoff spot)

NFC

1. Seattle Seahawks (13-3)*: Remaining schedule — at San Francisco 49ers (Saturday, 8 p.m. ET)

Notable: Seattle is up to 55% to earn the No. 1 seed after beating the Panthers on Sunday, according to The Athletic's playoff predictor.

If they beat or tie the Niners on Saturday, they'll win the No. 1 seed, the NFC West and secure home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs.
If they lose to the Niners, the defeat would knock the Seahawks down to the No. 5 seed, and they'd have to face either the Buccaneers or the Panthers in the wild-card round.

2. Chicago Bears (11-5)*: Remaining schedule — vs. Detroit Lions (Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET)

Notable: The Bears are locked into either the No. 2 or No. 3 slot in the NFC playoffs. Both of those positions mean the Bears will host in the wild-card round.

If they defeat the Lions on Sunday, they'll face the Packers in the wild-card round as the No. 2 seed.
If they lose to the Lions on Sunday AND the Eagles beat/tie the Commanders, then the Bears will fall to the No. 3 seed.
If they tie the Lions on Sunday AND the Eagles beat the Commanders, then the Bears will fall to the No. 3 seed.

3. Philadelphia Eagles (11-5)*: Remaining schedule — vs. Washington Commanders (Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET)

Notable: The Eagles have a shot at the No. 2 seed. They would need to win on Sunday AND have the Lions beat/tie the Bears to move up. A Bears victory would lock them in the No. 3 spot.

4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-9): Remaining schedule — finished

Notable odds: The Bucs will be NFC South champions if the Falcons lose or tie on Sunday. If the Falcons beat the Saints, however, the Panthers will still win the division despite losing to Tampa Bay on Saturday.

5. San Francisco 49ers (12-4)*: Remaining schedule — vs. Seattle Seahawks (Saturday, 8 p.m. ET)

Notable: They can be the No. 1 seed in the NFC and NFC West champions if they beat the Seahawks on Saturday night. If they lose, the Niners would be either the No. 5 or No. 6 seed in the playoffs.

The Niners would be the No. 5 seed if they lose vs. the Seahawks AND the Rams lose vs. the Cardinals.
The Niners would be the No. 6 seed if they lose vs. the Seahawks AND the Rams beat the Cardinals.

A tie against the Seahawks would lock the 49ers into the No. 5 spot.

6. Los Angeles Rams (11-5)*: Remaining schedule — vs. Arizona Cardinals (Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET)

Notable: The Rams are locked into a wild-card spot. In order to get the No. 5 seed, and a playoff date vs. the NFC South champion, they need to win their regular-season finale vs. the Cardinals AND have the Seahawks defeat the 49ers on Saturday night.

7. Green Bay Packers* (9-6-1): Remaining schedule — at Minnesota Vikings (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET)

Notable: They're locked in at No. 7. Their wild-card round opponent will be either the rival Bears or the Eagles.

Still in the NFC picture

Carolina Panthers (8-9): Remaining schedule — finished

Notable: The Panthers can win the NFC South and clinch the No. 4 seed if the Falcons win on Sunday. Otherwise their loss to the Buccaneers on Saturday will knock them out of the playoffs.

AFC

1. Denver Broncos (13-3)*: Remaining schedule — vs. Los Angeles Chargers (Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET)

AFC No. 1 seed-clinching scenario:

Beat the Chargers OR
Patriots lose to Dolphins AND Jaguars lose to Titans

Notable: The Broncos ended the Chiefs' nine-year reign atop the AFC West by virtue of the Chargers' loss Saturday, and now have around a 61% chance to earn the No. 1 seed per ESPN.

2. New England Patriots (13-3)*: Remaining schedule — vs. Miami Dolphins (Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET)

AFC No. 1 seed-clinching scenario:

Beat the Dolphins AND Broncos lose to Chargers

Notable: The Patriots secured the AFC East crown with the Bills loss on Sunday. They still have a 33% shot at the AFC No. 1 seed, according to The Athletic.

3. Jacksonville Jaguars (12-4)*: Remaining schedule — vs. Tennessee Titans (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET)

AFC No. 1 seed-clinching scenario:

Beat the Titans AND Broncos lose to Chargers AND Patriots lose to Dolphins

AFC South-clinching scenarios:

Jaguars beat the Titans OR
Texans lose to the Colts

Notable: The Jaguars have a 86% chance to win the AFC South per The Athletic, and can make it easy on themselves by beating the Titans in Week 18.

4. Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7): Remaining schedule — vs. Baltimore Ravens (Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET)

Notable: The Steelers can claim the division crown with a win or tie vs. the Ravens. A loss sends them home for the season.

5. Houston Texans (11-5): Remaining schedule — vs. Indianapolis Colts (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET)

AFC South-clinching scenarios:

Beat the Colts AND Jaguars lose to Titans

Notable: The Texans' chances of winning the AFC South are at 14%, per The Athletic. But they'll need help from the Jaguars in the season finale. They will remain the No. 5 seed with a victory and a win by the Jaguars. A divisional crown would get them a No. 3 seed and the reward of hosting in the wild-card round.

The Texans can fall to the No. 6 seed if they lose to the Colts AND the Bills OR Chargers lose.

The Texans can fall to the No. 7 seed if they lose to the Colts AND both the Bills and Chargers win.

6. Los Angeles Chargers (11-5)*: Remaining schedule — at Denver Broncos (Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET)

Notable: The Chargers are in the postseason, but also locked into a wild-card spot. They can rise to the No. 5 seed if they defeat the Broncos AND the Texans fall to the Colts. That No. 5 seed would put them on the road in the wild-card round against either the Ravens or Steelers.

The Chargers would stay at the No. 6 spot if they win AND the Texans win. If they lose against the Broncos AND the Bills lose to the Jets, the Chargers would also remain at No. 6.

L.A. could tumble to the No. 7 seed if they lose on Sunday AND the Bills win.

7. Buffalo Bills (11-5)*: Remaining schedule — vs. New York Jets (Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET)

Notable: The Bills are locked into a wild-card spot. Here's how they can elevate their seeding:

Buffalo can be the No. 5 seed if they beat the Jets AND the Texans lose to the Colts AND the Chargers lose to the Broncos.
Buffalo can be the No. 6 seed if they beat the Jets AND the Texans lose to the Colts OR the Chargers lose to the Broncos.

A loss Sunday locks the Bills into the No. 7 spot and a wild-card road trip to the No. 2 seed.

Even with a win against the Jets, the Bills will be stuck at No. 7 if the Texans AND Chargers win their regular-season finales.