5 days ago
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As of this morning, the following teams would be in the NCAA Tournament if the season ended today based on the NPI and conference standings. Please note that projected conference tournament winners are in italics and are projected by current in-conference point percentage:
Michigan
North Dakota
Wisconsin
Minnesota-Duluth
Michigan State
Dartmouth
Western Michigan
Penn State
Denver
Quinnipiac
Cornell
Princeton
Augustana
Boston College
Bemidji State
Bentley
First Four Out: Minnesota State, UConn, Harvard, Providence
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The selection committee avoids in-conference matchups in the first round and tends to place the one seeds in their closest geographic region. As the host of the Loveland Regional, Denver will automatically be assigned to that region should they make the NCAA Tournament.
With these stipulations in mind, the projected tournament would look like this:
Loveland Regional
Michigan vs. Bentley
Dartmouth vs. Denver
Sioux Falls Regional
North Dakota vs. Bemidji State
Western Michigan vs. Quinnipiac
Albany Regional
Wisconsin vs. Boston College
Penn State vs. Cornell
Worcester Regional
Minnesota-Duluth vs. Augustana
Michigan State vs. Princeton
The ECAC has four teams in this week’s projection, with Dartmouth, Quinnipiac, Cornell, and Princeton all making the cut. Princeton has won five straight games, including home wins over Dartmouth and Harvard last weekend, to jump up to the No. 12 seed. The Tigesr lead the ECAC in point percentage (.792), but Cornell and Dartmouth (both .750) are right on their heels. Quinnipiac has won nine of its last 10 games to position themselves toward an at-large bid. After starting 11-0, Dartmouth has lost four of its last five games, but the Big Green have held steady on the two seed line.
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Michigan still leads the way for the Big Ten, although Wisconsin holds the projected automatic bid with its .773 point percentage in conference play. Both teams are projected one seeds in the field. Michigan State and Penn State are both hanging around on the two line, though there is still plenty of hockey to be played.
North Dakota’s resurgence has been a top story around college hockey this season. The Fighting Hawks have won 12 of their last 13 games and find themselves at No. 2 in the NPI and leading the NCHC entering this weekend. Denver is right behind them in the conference standings. The two teams will meet next week, a series that could go a long way toward deciding the conference title. Western Michigan has had some championship hangover moments, but the Broncos beat Boston College and Wisconsin at the Holiday Faceoff in Milwaukee to maintain their No. 7 spot in the NPI.
Surprisingly, Bemidji State leads the CCHA in point percentage (.694) despite winning just four of its 12 conference games in regulation. The Beavers have won six conference games in overtime. St. Thomas (.692), Minnesota State (.667), Augustana (.615), and Michigan Tech (.611) are all in the mix. Augustana is the only current at-large team from this conference, buoyed by a key road non-conference win over Minnesota-Duluth.
Boston College continues to lead Hockey East (.700), giving themselves the conference’s only bid in this field. UConn is the first team out, but the Huskies can jump back in with a sweep of UMass-Lowell this weekend. Providence is set to host Maine this weekend, giving the Friars a good chance to improve on their No. 18 spot in the NPI.
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