Michigan basketball looks to stay unbeaten vs Penn State: Prediction

Michigan basketball, at least on the scoreboard, has been mostly drama-free for the past two months – unless you count watching the Wolverines' total for triple digits.

U-M has reached 100 points seven times already this season – one short of tying the program record set in 1988-89 –with nine of its past 10 wins coming by 25 points or more. The lone exception in that run? A game that should give Wolverines fans expecting another massive blowout some pause.

Advertisement

Back on Dec. 13, the Wolverines played their first Big Ten road game (and second overall) of the season: An 18-point win over Maryland in which Michigan trailed at halftime and found itself down by nine in the second half before out-scoring the Terps by 27 points in the final 18:45.

The lesson there the Wolverines would do well to remember: Big Ten road games are tough – even against the conference's cellar dwellers. No. 1 U-M (13-0, 3-0 Big Ten) has a similar matchup next, as the Wolverines head to Penn State (9-5, 0-3) on Tuesday, Jan. 6 (7 p.m., FS1).

"Excited to get on the road for our I believe third, third true road game," coach Dusty May said Monday. "Played several neutral sites. It's not as if we played a heavy home schedule, but we're excited to see if we can improve on our performance on the opposition."

Advertisement

(Michigan's first road game: a tight win over TCU, in which it needed a rally in the final five minutes.)

There a clear bottom tier in the Big Ten, just three games into league play, with 14 of 18 teams landing among the top 70 in the the KenPom rankings entering Monday. And then there's the four others: Minnesota at No. 96, Maryland at 109, Penn State at 121 and Rutgers at 157. Michigan has already defeated the Terps and the Scarlet Knights (101-60 on Dec. 6). The Golden Gophers, meanwhile, aren't on deck until Feb. 24.

That leaves the Nittany Lions looking up at a behemoth in Tuesday's matchup.

To be fair, Penn State does a great job of protecting the ball – No. 7 nationally in turnover rate (13.3%) – and forcing turnovers at a high clip: No. 36 in the nation (20.5%). Mike Rhoades, now in his third season in Happy Valley, also has put together a sizable roster, No. 15 in average height (78.8 inches) and just slightly taller (by three-tenths of an inch) than U-M's sizeable crew.

Advertisement

BEHIND THE SCENES: Meet Michigan basketball's analytics guru who has team breaking the metrics

And yet, there's not much else the group does well.

Penn State's defense is porous, allowing a 55.4% effective field goal rate (No. 307), dragged down by its work both inside the arc (56% on 2-point defense, No. 298) and outside (36.4%, No. 299). The Nittany Lions are led by freshman Kayden Mingo (14.9 points per game) Freddie Dilione V (14.1) and Melih Tunca (10.6), a freshman from Turkey.

That doesn't mean U-M will take this group lightly.

"We have a lot of respect for Penn State, their coaches, their young nucleus of guys," May said. "They have a they have a core group that even though they haven't been together long, you can see their confidence growing, and they're staying committed to the process of getting better."

Advertisement

Michigan hasn't fared all that well playing at Penn State's Bryce Jordan Center. Michigan is just 14-11 there overall and a woeful 4-5 in the past nine meetings. That includes last year, when Michigan escaped Happy Valley with a four-point win thanks to a 7-0 Tre Donaldson run in the final minute.

Adding another touch of gloom to the visit: There's a chance the Wolverines won't have Yaxel Lendeborg. The star forward was listed as questionable Monday as he nurses a strained calf sustained last week.. Then again, U-M has dominated the competition in balanced fashion for months, with three wins of at least 30 points against ranked teams, five players scoring in double figures and another three averaging more than eight per game. Per KenPom, Michigan is No. 1 in defensive efficiency and No. 5 on offense, features the most effective overall shooting offense and defense, and is No. 1 inside the arc, both in making 2-pointers and stopping them.

ONE AT A TIME: Michigan basketball on an epic 'heater' and focused on final goal

Michigan hasn't been pushed in some time, but May doesn't think it needs to be to be tested for an upcoming NCAA Tournament run.

Advertisement

"Am I sitting here saying, 'I hope you have a close game in Happy Valley?' Absolutely not," he said. "We want to play. Oh, we want to play good ball, and trust that the scoreboard says what we need to say."

Tony Garcia's Michigan vs Penn State prediction

If this game was in Ann Arbor, the Wolverines might have a chance to add on to their Big Ten record for 40-point wins in a single season (now at six). Instead, it's going to be in a sleepy Bryce Jordan Center on a cold Tuesday night, with Yaxel Lendeborg potentially sitting out. That likely won't matter, though; Michigan is focused on the process, not just scoring more points than the opponent, and has way too much talent on both sides of the ball. The pick: U-M 96, Penn State 69.

Tony Garcia is the Wolverines beat writer for the Detroit Free Press. Email him at apgarcia@freepress.com and follow him on X at @RealTonyGarcia.

This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: Michigan basketball pick, prediction vs Penn State: Road warriors?