LSU is only two possessions away from an undefeated season.
But because those two possessions — a Tonie Morgan 3-pointer and an uncalled Mikayla Blakes foot out of bounds — didn’t go in their favor, the Tigers are 0-2 in the SEC with losses to Kentucky and Vanderbilt. It could get worse soon, with a road game at one-loss Georgia on Thursday and two more top-five teams (No. 2 Texas and No. 5 Oklahoma) up next on the schedule.
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LSU is still fifth in the NET rankings, buoyed by a 14-0 start to the season. Its roster is as talented as any in the country, headlined by the perimeter trio of Mikaylah Williams, Flau’jae Johnson and MiLaysia Fulwiley. Coach Kim Mulkey is accustomed to winning — a lot — and has ended every regular season ranked in the top 10 of the AP poll since 2010. For many reasons, it’s too early to sound the alarm on the Tigers’ prospects this season.
The recent losses prompted some outward concern from Mulkey, however. She doesn’t regret the cupcake nonconference schedule (No. 297th in strength of schedule) that failed to test LSU before SEC games.
The reckoning, albeit delayed, has arrived for the Tigers. In Mulkey’s words, these are the challenges LSU faces as it goes deeper into conference play.
“We don’t block out”
LSU has ranked top three in offensive rebounding percentage and total rebounding percentage each of the last four seasons. But the defensive rebounding hasn’t been nearly as elite, especially in conference play. Kentucky outrebounded the Tigers 44-26, with 17 offensive rebounds, in its 80-78 win. Vanderbilt grabbed 14 offensive rebounds in its 65-61 win, leading to 20 second-chance points, well above LSU’s season-long average of 8.8 conceded second-chance points; 10 of those points from extra possessions came in the fourth quarter, as Vanderbilt erased a seven-point deficit.
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Look at this play early in the contest when the Tigers do their job in initial defense, forcing a deep 3-pointer late in the shot clock. But four players don’t box out or find a body, allowing the long rebound to go back to the Commodores, ultimately resulting in two free throws for Blakes. For good measure, you can see Mulkey crossing her arms on the sideline as Vanderbilt regains possession. “We think we’re just going to go in there and out-jump, out-leap somebody,” she said after the loss. “You’re not going to do that in this league.”
The rebounding failures are team-wide. Other than 6-foot-5 Kate Koval, the bigs are undersized, placing them at a disadvantage against taller teams like Kentucky, which boasts a frontcourt of 6-5 Clara Strack and 6-3 Teonni Key and Amelia Hassett. LSU’s guards need to contribute on the glass to compensate. Mulkey specifically called out Flau’jae Johnson for having one rebound in 38 minutes against the Wildcats, which leads to LSU’s next problem.
“I would love to make an excuse for Flau’jae”
One game after pulling down a single rebound against Kentucky, Johnson went scoreless against Vanderbilt. She went down awkwardly when attempting to contest a shot in help defense and trainers taped her ankle on the sideline. That kept her out most of the second quarter and limited her to 19 minutes overall.
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When Johnson was on the court, she was almost invisible. It seemed as if the Tigers were using her as a decoy, with all the actions running through Fulwiley, Williams or Jada Richard. Johnson attempted only four field goals and had one assist, which came on LSU’s final score of the night. She was also overwhelmed defensively by Blakes, who repeatedly drove through her on the way to the basket. In total, LSU was a team-worst minus-12 in Johnson’s minutes.
On one possession with less than five minutes to play, Johnson had the ball on the wing and picked up her dribble when she couldn’t make anything happen, causing Mulkey to use her penultimate timeout. The lack of timeouts ended up burning the Tigers in the final minute when they couldn’t advance the ball or signal for a review.
Mulkey wanted to give Johnson some grace for playing at less than 100 percent. However, LSU clearly needs more from its senior leader. The only other fourth-year player in the rotation is Amiya Joyner, who transferred from East Carolina. Johnson is the Tiger who has to set the tone on both ends. She needs to make the right decisions on defense, attack the glass, play with pace and get downhill. Even before the fall against Vanderbilt, Johnson wasn’t as aggressive as she needed to be, falling in love with her jumper and ball-watching on rebounds.
After losing to Kentucky, Mulkey specifically complimented Williams and Richard for their performances. She added: “We’ve got to get more production from a few other players, and they know who they are.” That list starts with Johnson.
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“We’re not talented enough to beat people like we have been”
LSU hasn’t asserted its strengths against good opposition, while opponents have taken away the Tigers’ best attributes. For instance, the Wildcats and Commodores are excellent at protecting the rim, and though LSU has made nearly 70 percent of its attempts in the restricted area, that fell apart over the past week.
In the losses, the Tigers shot a combined 26 of 51 in the restricted area, well below the national average of 57.1 percent. A primary culprit is Fulwiley — arguably no one in the country has a better handle, and she can get to the basket at will. But her slick moves with the ball in her hands haven’t improved her finishing, as she missed five layups against the Wildcats and four against the Commodores.
LSU is also a good ball-control team, committing 14.4 turnovers per game. However, Vanderbilt forces more than 22 per game and won that battle as the Tigers gave the ball away 22 times in defeat. The Commodores also won the second-chance battle, another supposed strength for LSU.
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Mulkey cited discipline, fatigue and focus as LSU’s shortcomings, but she also had a more damning indictment: “We’re not tough enough.” Toughness comes from going to battle together, and the Tigers have just started to do so. The next three games will reveal if LSU has an inner grit that has been waiting to emerge or if that toughness is the missing ingredient holding it back.
This article originally appeared in The Athletic.
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