Karen Guregian: Why the Patriots can’t afford to coast into the postseason

6 days ago 2

FOXBOROUGH - With Chargers coach Jim Harbaugh opting to sit a banged up Justin Herbert against the Denver Broncos, the chances of the Patriots capturing the AFC’s top seed pretty much evaporated before kickoff against Miami Sunday.

It’s hard to believe the Broncos, who sit at the same 13-3 mark as the Patriots but own the tiebreaker, won’t prevail in that game.

So with the Patriots likely kissing the top seed goodbye barring a miracle, what’s to play for in the season finale against the Dolphins?

Why should Mike Vrabel even dress Drake Maye, and risk possible injury to their MVP quarterback?

Why play the starters, especially after a rough week dealing with the fallout from Stefon Diggs and Christian Barmore‘s assault cases come to light?

Because having the Patriots assure themselves the No. 2 seed is worth the trouble.

While the Broncos will have the benefit of a bye in the wild card round assuming a win over the Herbert-less Chargers, there’s always a chance someone will knock them off in the division round. And if that happens, and the Patriots take care of business, they would host the AFC Championship in Foxborough.

The No. 2 seed guarantees two home games, and beyond, if the top seed loses.

If the Patriots don’t beat the Dolphins, they could drop to No. 3 assuming the Jacksonville Jaguars beat the Tennessee Titans. Obviously, the venue hasn’t mattered during the regular season. The Patriots did not lose on the road, going a perfect 8-0.

During the post-season, however, the less travel the better. That should be the preferred option.

Beyond that, the Patriots want to keep their positive momentum going. They want to feel good about their play heading into the tournament.

That’s not to say Vrabel should be reckless, play Maye and his starters the entire game, especially if they have a comfortable lead.

It’s fine to start Maye, build a lead, and then pull him. It’s hard imagining Vrabel straying from that formula and jeopardizing his chances in the postseason by keeping his starters in too long.

He’s going to win the game, and be smart about how he accomplishes the mission. That has to be his mindset.

Asked if he anticipated the starters playing this week, Vrabel indicated that would be the case. Both defensive tackle Milton Williams and offensive tackle Will Campbell were activated off IR, so they’ll be seeing their first action in more than a month.

“Anybody that’s healthy,” Vrabel said. “We’re going to do everything we can to win the football game.”

Within reason.

It’s a bit of a delicate balance accomplishing the two goals at hand - winning the game to assure the No. 2 seed, and staying healthy in the process. With the chance the Patriots first playoff game could be played Saturday, Vrabel also has to factor in the possibility of prepping on a short week.

He wants to win, but he also wants his players to be relatively fresh and ready to go. This isn’t Vrabel’s first rodeo, so he’ll also have that in mind.

Another consideration should be the opponent, although that won’t necessarily be at the top of Vrabel’s list.

Assuming the Chargers lose, and the Bills don’t tank and beat the hapless Jets, the Chargers would be the 7th seed. That’s who the Patriots would draw as the No. 2 seed. And, given all the possible choices, it would be a pretty favorable draw.

Herbert, who has been operating with a broken left hand, is banged up. He’s certainly capable of beating anyone if he gets hot, and his line gives him time. But that line has been a mess with multiple starters hurt.

Beyond that, the Chargers defense is good - 10th ranked per DVOA - and is one of the better units at defending the deep ball, but they’re not in the same league as Houston or Denver.

On Friday, Vrabel said he was confident the Patriots would “be ready for whoever” they wind up playing.

The Patriots, Chargers and Bills all have 4:25 p.m. games, so Vrabel can scoreboard watch those proceedings if he so chooses. With Jacksonville playing at 1 p.m., the Patriots will already know if the Jaguars win or lose. If the Jags win, that gives them even more incentive to beat the Dolphins.

Having home field at least until the AFC championship game is that important.

The players, meanwhile, sound like an extension of their coach. They tell anyone who will listen their focus is on the game at hand.

“We want to finish the season strong. A relentless finish,” running back Rhamondre Stevenson said. “Finish the season how we’ve been playing. Put our best foot forward and get a ‘W.’”

On Friday, Diggs, who spoke with the media for the first time since assault allegations surfaced, offered the same message.

“We have to finish the season strong especially if we want to go where we want to go,” he said, adding it was “imperative” to carry some momentum into the post-season.

Special teams captain Brenden Schooler agreed.

“I think it’s important that we finish the season the right way, and can start our playoff run the right way,” Schooler said. “The Dolphins have been playing well the second half of the season. It’s going to be up to us to set the tone, command the game and go out there and win.”