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There is just one round of league phase fixtures remaining in this season’s Champions League, and for Inter, Juventus, Atalanta and Napoli, everything hangs in the balance heading into the final 90 minutes of the first round.
As things stand after seven matches of the Champions League league phase, there are no Italian sides sitting in the top eight, which brings automatic qualification to the round of 16. Teams that finish from ninth place to 24th will have to settle for a spot in the play-offs. Those in 25th and below will be eliminated.
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Atalanta are currently the highest ranked of the Italian sides in the Champions League. They sit in 13th place on 13 points from seven matches, despite a 3-2 collapse at home against Athletic Club on Wednesday night.
Inter sit just below La Dea in 14th place with 12 points to their name from seven matches. They were beaten 3-1 at home against league leaders Arsenal on Tuesday evening.
Juventus complete the Italian mid-table pile-up, sitting one place below Inter in 15th place, also on 12 points but with a slightly lesser goal difference. They picked up a confidence-boosting 2-0 win at home against Jose Mourinho’s Benfica on Wednesday evening.
Finally, there is Antonio Conte’s Napoli, who are currently in the unwanted 25th position, which is not enough to qualify for the knock-out rounds. They have eight points from seven matches and were held to a 1-1 draw by Copenhagen on Tuesday night.
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Here is a look at the probability of each side qualifying for the Champions League knock-out rounds
What the Italian teams need to finish in the Champions League top eight
*Probability according to Opta.
Atalanta
BERGAMO, ITALY – JANUARY 21: Nikola Krstovic of Atalanta celebrates scoring his team’s second goal during the UEFA Champions League 2025/26 League Phase MD7 match between Atalanta BC and Athletic Club at Stadio di Bergamo on January 21, 2026 in Bergamo, Italy. (Photo by Marco Luzzani/Getty Images)
Chance of finishing in top eight: 13.42%
Chance of qualifying for the play-offs: 86.58%
Final fixture against: Union Saint-Gilloise (a)
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Inter
MILAN, ITALY – JANUARY 20: Petar Sucic of FC Internazionale Milano celebrates scoring his team’s first goal during the UEFA Champions League 2025/26 League Phase MD7 match between FC Internazionale Milano and Arsenal FC at Stadio San Siro on January 20, 2026 in Milan, Italy. (Photo by Carl Recine/Getty Images)
Chance of finishing in top eight: 6.31%
Chance of qualifying for the play-offs: 93.69%
Final fixture against: Borussia Dortmund (a)
Juventus
TURIN, ITALY – JANUARY 21: Khephren Thuram of Juventus greets teammate Pierre Kalulu following the UEFA Champions League 2025/26 League Phase MD7 match between Juventus and SL Benfica at Juventus Stadium on January 21, 2026 in Turin, Italy. (Photo by Valerio Pennicino/Getty Images)
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Chance of finishing in the top eight: 6.75%
Chance of qualifying for the play-offs: 93.25%
Final fixture against: Monaco (a)
Napoli
NAPLES, ITALY – JANUARY 17: Stanislav Lobotka of SSC Napoli celebrates with his teammates after scoring his side’s first goal during the Serie A match between SSC Napoli and US Sassuolo Calcio at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona on January 17, 2026 in Naples, Italy. (Photo by Francesco Pecoraro/Getty Images)
Chance of finishing in the top eight: Mathematically impossible
Chance of qualifying for the play-offs: 50.87%
Final fixture against: Chelsea (h)
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