How Can Broncos Beat Chargers In Week 18 To Secure No. 1 Seed In AFC?

The Denver Broncos can secure the No. 1 seed in the American Football Conference with a win over the Los Angeles Chargers, or losses from the New England Patriots and Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 18.

The Chargers are expected to rest several starters, including star quarterback Justin Herbert, as the team has already locked up a playoff spot and has nothing else to play for except moving up to the No. 5 seed.

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Denver head coach Sean Payton has been adamant that he and the team want to secure the first-round bye and home-field advantage, so much so that Payton didn’t even acknowledge the fact that the Broncos won the AFC West division crown for the first time in a decade.

With Trey Lance under center for the Chargers, expect the Broncos’ pass-rush to get home quite often, especially because of how depleted Los Angeles’ offensive line is. It should be a defensive clinic from a full-strength Denver defense.

Offensively, coach Payton and the Broncos can exploit Los Angeles’ main weakness on defense. The Chargers play split-safety coverage often and zone defense even more; their opponents exposed this over the past few weeks.

“The Chargers play split-safety coverage at a league-high rate of 57.1%, and this unit is the NFL's most zone-heavy defense (70.2% of opponent dropbacks),” ESPN’s Matt Bowen wrote Friday. “And over the past four weeks -- in matchups versus the Texans, Cowboys, Chiefs and Eagles -- the Chargers have given up 12 receptions of 20 or more yards.

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“On Sunday, Broncos coach Sean Payton can scheme up throws for quarterback Bo Nix. Denver can lift the top of the defense to create deep in-breaking voids or remove the safeties to isolate matchups on the corners with boundary receivers. The goal is to put Nix in a position to target the third level of the field. (And the Chargers could opt to sit some players on defense this week, improving the outlook for the Broncos.)”

The Broncos offense has been hitting its stride in the passing game and if the Chargers continue to play zone coverage like they typically do, expect Bo Nix to carve Los Angeles’ secondary.

Denver’s home crowd will be rocking as the team embarks on securing the No. 1 seed and first-round bye for the first time since 2015.