Hear us out: Is Trey Lance the single best value in cards?

6 days ago 2

This excerpt appeared in J.R. Fickle's Mantel Mail Day newsletter, hitting your inbox and Yahoo Sports every Tuesday morning.

You may view Trey Lance as a bust. Most people do. And that’s exactly why his market is so great right now. We can’t buy Malik Willis cards after his late-season surge for the Packers showcased him as a potential starter in 2026. That market is adjusting.

But Lance? Buckle in!

Image Credit:Superior Sports Investments

1. Why Trey Lance?

Forget about Sunday’s game, where he played with backups and forced passes to Keenan Allen in the first three quarters to hit his receptions incentives. Pull back the frame to 2021, when Lance was picked at No. 3 by the 49ers, an organization that rarely misses in talent evaluation — they traded up from 12 to get him. Lance got his first career start in Week 5 after coming in for an injured Jimmy Garoppolo the previous week. He put up 349 yards and 2 TDs while running for 130 between those two appearances, in a game and a half. He was then benched again until the final week of the season, throwing for 239 yards and 2 TDs and running for 31. He won the starting job in 2022 and broke his ankle in the second game. This eventually opened the door for Brock Purdy.

In 2023, Lance lost the backup role to Sam Darnold and was traded to Dallas. He spent the season as the No. 3 QB and didn’t see any game action. When Dak Prescott was injured in 2024, the Cowboys went with Cooper Rush over Lance — but they gave him a shot in the last game of the season (there’s a theme developing here) where he threw for 244 yards to receivers like Brandin Cooks, Jalen Tolbert, and KaVontae Turpin.

Lance will be a free agent this offseason and he has recent history on his side, with Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, Geno Smith and even Daniel Jones having realized their potential several years and teams after being top picks in the draft.

If this tantalizes you, read on!

2. What are we buying?

-rookies

-autographs

-PSA 10s

-Panini Prizms

A few notes! I am one of the biggest Leaf fans you will find, and Leaf is an incredible way to get into the Lance market (or any market) at a low price point. But this is a full-on resale gambit. Leaf is my “sentimental/FunC” home; Panini Prizm is where I go if I’m speculating or buying low hoping for giant returns.

The 2021 Prizm set has a billion parallels, so you may want to consult this post before you buy. A caveat to the note — someone looking at a parallel might just think orange disco or red white and blue parallels are cool…and simply buy those instead of a scarcer version.

3. The markets respond

One of the reasons I don’t love collecting modern football cards is the insane premium on QBs — and little value elsewhere. Collectors sniff a QB being good and the prices skyrocket — and they started high to begin with. But where we can exploit the market is in the perception department — people think Lance is a bust; he’s not. He just had some really bad luck and timing. People think the 49ers thought he was trash and got rid of him; they were being magnanimous and let him develop as a better fit elsewhere. When he’s played, he’s shown good passing ability and elite running skill.

The timeline we need here with Lance and his currently-deflated card prices looks like this:

Someone in mainstream media is going to speculate that teams are looking at Lance as a starter
Rumors will then start about a team… let’s say the Raiders, loving Lance — “Tom Brady, especially”
Lance’s $20 PSA 10s will climb to $50
Lance will sign somewhere and will get a shot at winning the job. $50 becomes $100.
Lance wins the starting job in camp. $125
Lance has a decent Week 1. $140
Lance has a monster Week 2 and runs for 50-plus yards. $175

My hunch is it plateaus there as he continues to show off his abilities as a runner. Fantasy football hype will help push up his value as he becomes a Top 5 QB in the format because of his running skill.

4. Who’s with me??!!

The only way to actually get any value in the modern QB card market is identifying misperception and hoping the right opportunity presents itself. There is risk — maybe Lance doesn’t get a starting job. Maybe he gets hurt. Maybe he lands in a bad offense for his skills. But rarely do you get a chance to buy into the only real area of value in modern cards — the starting QB. Here we are. Believe and get in or don’t and… buy more JJ McCarthy cards, I guess?

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