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Look, I know. I even wrote it in another thing this week. I can’t know for sure that Sunday is the last Buffalo Bills game at Highmark Stadium, but I can write it for “pretty sure.” Since this is making us all pretty sentimental, let’s frame this week’s opponent preview from the perspective that our farewell game is likely to be the shortest one this season.
Yup, for fans saying goodbye to the stadium as the New York Jets visit the Bills for the Week 18 clash, you shouldn’t expect to be there that long.
What’s the mark to beat?
I’m aware that barring overtime, all games are 60 minutes long with a 12-minute halftime. We’re not talking game time, we’re talking elapsed time. The current mark to beat is tied against half the AFC North. Versus the Pittsburgh Steelers and Cleveland Browns, the game lasted 2:53. Contrast that with the season/home opener against the Baltimore Ravens. That game lasted 3:15, or 22 minutes longer than these two.
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Running game
Games where there’s lot of running tend to skew shorter. The lack of incomplete passes stopping the clock is a big factor. In the Steelers game there were 69 rushes total (both teams) to 47 passes. The Bills did their part for sure with 51 of those rushes coming from Buffalo. That’s not a typo, and to prove it I’ll type 51 rushes again. Against the Browns, it was 60 rushes to 49 passes. The Bills weren’t quite so run heavy, with 29 of those coming from Buffalo.
Are the two teams going to run a lot on Sunday? Yeah most likely. The Bills have 1,010 plays on offense this season. 504 rushes, 466 passes, and 40 sacks. Thanks to Allen getting beat up by sacks, the Bills comfortably have more rushes than passes this season. They’re not the most lopsided ratio, but no one has more rushing plays this year than Buffalo. In other words, they run a lot by default, which you likely knew.
Why else will there be a lot of running? I think for the Bills their primary purpose for the game will be avoiding injuries. That means resting starters and backups usually skew even more toward running the ball than the first-string would due to risk aversion.
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Buffalo has even more reason to be risk averse. If they can avoid an interception, then the Jets will be the first team in NFL history to record zero interceptions in a season, which would be hilarious. We’ve seen from letting players play to earn incentives that head coach Sean McDermott is a stat counter and I don’t think he’s above trying to help them set that record.
The Jets for their part might be happy to run the ball and accelerate the game themselves. Regardless of their motivation, the run game might be the ticket. If they’re playing just to get out of there and reset for the 2026 season, then they’ll play along and run the ball. If they’re playing to win, their sixth-best-rushing-yards-per-average gives them a better shot than their 32nd yards per pass rating.
Now the first meeting was a Buffalo blowout, so take this with a grain of salt, but the Bills ran the ball 43 times in that game. With or without a lead, they may stick to that script. That game lasted 2:59.
Since I’m the penalty guy, I might be the only one to mention how that might help things move along, so let’s dive into that. Penalties tend to go down as the season progresses, and that’s been happening as it almost always does. That means this is statistically the most likely game to avoid flags out of any in the regular season. Further, it’s my belief that refs tend to hold the whistle when the stakes are as low as this game ought to be. Adding to that sentiment, despite the rivalry, I don’t know if we’ll see a lot of crimes of passion between the two teams this weekend.
Kickoff is slated for 4:25 p.m. EST this Sunday. If my hunch is correct, the clock might hit zero in the fourth quarter before 7:18 p.m. EST
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