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Needless to say, the 2025 season did not go as planned for the Detroit Lions. They enter Week 18 with an 8-8 record and have been eliminated from playoff contention.
As such, many fans have already shifted to offseason mode and are tracking where the Lions can pick in the first round of the 2026 NFL draft, some even actively rooting for a loss against the Chicago Bears in Week 18 to improve the Lions' NFL draft positioning.
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How far can the Lions climb with a win? How far can they fall with a loss? Let's dive in:
Current 2026 NFL draft order before Week 18
11. Dolphins: 7-9 (.485 strength of schedule)
15. Lions: 8-8 (.491)
18. Colts**: 8-8 (.537)
*Falcons' pick is owned by the Rams; **Colts' pick is owned by the Jets
The Lions currently hold the No. 15 pick. They are one of four teams (Ravens, Vikings, Colts) at 8-8 that are not in a playoff position. The Carolina Panthers lead the NFC South at 8-8. The Lions have the lowest strength of schedule among the group. Therefore, a loss Sunday against the Bears likely ensures at least a top-15 pick.
Mathematically, the Lions could pick as high as No. 11, but The New York Times' 2026 NFL draft projections give the Lions less than a 1% chance to wind up with either pick No. 11 or pick No. 12.
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With that in mind, let's look at the scenario to get Detroit pick No. 13, which The New York Times projects has a 23% chance of happening:
How the Lions secure pick No. 13 in the 2026 NFL draft
Here's the scenario for the Lions to wind up picking No. 13 in the 2026 NFL draft:
Lions lose at Bears
Cowboys win at Giants
How the Lions get pick No. 12 in the 2026 NFL draft
Again, there's less than a 1% chance this happens, per The New York Times, but here's the outcomes required:
Lions lose at Bears
Cowboys win at Giants
Buccaneers win vs. Panthers
Lions finish with weaker strength of schedule than Falcons
Per Tankathon's strength of schedule tiebreaking rooting guide, the Lions would also need four of the following results to happen in order to secure the strength of schedule tiebreaker over the Falcons:
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How far could the Lions fall in the 2026 NFL draft order
A win by the Lions over the Bears combined with Ravens, Vikings and Colts losses to the Steelers, Packers and Texans, respectively, would drop Detroit to pick No. 18.
Per The New York Times, the Lions have just a 4% chance of winding up with pick No. 18.
Lions' odds for each 2026 NFL draft pick
According to The New York Times' projections entering Week 18, here's Detroit's odds to secure each draft position:
No. 11: Less than 1%
No. 12: Less than 1%
No. 13: 23%
No. 14: 25%
No. 15: 10%
No. 16: 19%
No. 17: 18%
No. 18: 4%
In short, the Lions can draft anywhere from 11th to 18th, depending on their result against the Bears and results across the league.
For more Lions coverage, follow us on X, @TheLionsWire, and give our Facebook page a like. Follow Billy Riccette on X, @Billy_Riccette.
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This article originally appeared on Lions Wire: Examining Lions' 2026 NFL draft range entering Week 18
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