ESPN predicts the winner of Alabama vs Kentucky basketball in SEC opener

1 week ago 2

The Alabama Crimson Tide start SEC basketball play with a matchup against the Kentucky Wildcats at Coleman Coliseum Saturday.

With its nonconference gauntlet of opponents out of the way, Alabama (10-3) looks ready for SEC play. The Crimson Tide made 22 3-pointers in a 102-78 win over a Yale Bulldogs team (11-2) that has been to the past two NCAA Tournaments and currently sits atop the Ivy League standings.

Even with Labaron Philon not on the floor due to a leg injury, Alabama had no problems with the Bulldogs. Aden Holloway scored a career-high 26 points in Philon's absence, the Tide led by no fewer than double digits after the midway point of the first half, and they led by as many as 35 in the second half.

Nate Oats said after Monday's win over Yale that Philon's injury was "not super serious." Oats added he was "hopeful" Philon could play against Kentucky.

Kentucky (9-4) enters Saturday's game on a four-game winning streak. The Wildcats have gone from being ranked No. 8 in the USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll on Nov. 10 to being unranked as conference play begins. Coach Mark Pope's team suffered losses to North Carolina, Michigan State, Louisville and Gonzaga as part of its nonconference slate.

Alabama is ranked No. 14 in the latest AP Top 25 poll and No. 15 in this week's Coaches Poll; Kentucky is unranked.

The Crimson Tide went 3-0 against the Wildcats last season, winning at both Rupp Arena and Coleman Coliseum, in addition to the SEC Tournament in Nashville. Will Alabama win its fourth straight over Kentucky when the two teams meet Saturday in Tuscaloosa?

Will Alabama beat Kentucky basketball? ESPN's prediction

Ahead of Alabama-Kentucky, ESPN Analytics has made its odds for Saturday's game.

ESPN's matchup predictor, which offers a prediction model based on its college basketball power index and other variables, gives Alabama a 62.7% chance to win and Kentucky a 37.3% chance.

The Crimson Tide are 17th in ESPN's latest BPI ratings, up one spot from last week. Alabama and Kentucky have identical 17.2 overall ratings. The metrics give Alabama an 11.5 rating on offense, which ties the Illinois Fighting Illini for seventh best nationally. Defensively, the Tide are given a 5.7 overall rating that's 55th nationally.

Alabama basketball projected record, chances of winning 2026 SEC title entering SEC play

ESPN's BPI ratings give Alabama an overall record projection of 20.9-10.1, which (rounded up) includes an 11-7 mark in SEC play. The Crimson Tide's remaining strength of schedule rates 14th-best nationally.

Moreover, Alabama basketball is currently given a 14.3% chance of winning the SEC title. That percentage trails the league's only remaining unbeaten team, the Vanderbilt Commodores (34.1%), plus the defending champion Florida Gators (35.8%) and the Tennessee Volunteers (25%).

The Michigan Wolverines lead ESPN's BPI metrics with a 24.1 rating (11.7 offense, 12.4 defense). Michigan is ranked No. 1 in the USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll.

SEC basketball teams ranked by ESPN BPI entering 2026 conference schedule

16. South Carolina Gamecocks (8.3 BPI)
15. Mississippi State Bulldogs (10.3 BPI)
14. Ole Miss Rebels (11.2 BPI)
13. Missouri Tigers (11.3 BPI)
7. Arkansas Razorbacks (14.3 BPI)
T-4. Kentucky Wildcats (17.2 BPI)
2. Florida Gators (18.8 BPI)
1. Vanderbilt Commodores (18.9 BPI)

What is ESPN College Basketball Power Index (BPI)?

ESPN explains:

"The College Basketball Power Index (BPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of performance going forward. BPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Strength of Record (SOR) is a measure of team accomplishment based on how difficult a team's W-L record is to achieve. Game predictions account for opponent strength, pace of play, site, travel distance, day's rest and altitude, and are used to simulate the season 10,000 times to produce season projections. Numbers update daily."

Start time, TV announcers for Alabama basketball vs Kentucky in SEC opener

Ahead of Alabama-Kentucky, ESPN announced who will have the call of Saturday's game in Tuscaloosa. Dan Shulman and Jay Bilas will call the action from Tuscaloosa. Kris Budden will report from the sidelines.

Tipoff for Alabama-Kentucky is 11 a.m. CT at Coleman Coliseum. The game can be seen on ESPN.

Alabama basketball schedule 2025-26

General view of Coleman Coliseum in Tuscaloosa, Alabama. (Michael Chang/Getty Images)

Nov. 3: vs. North Dakota (W, 91-62)
Nov. 8: at St. John's (W, 103-96)
Nov. 13: vs. Purdue (L, 87-80)
Nov. 19: vs. Illinois (W, 90-86)
Nov. 24: vs. Gonzaga (L, 95-85)
Nov. 25: vs. UNLV (W, 115-76)
Nov. 26: vs. Maryland (W, 105-72)
Dec. 3: vs. Clemson (W, 90-84)
Dec. 7: vs. UTSA (W, 97-55)
Dec. 13: vs. Arizona (L, 96-75)
Dec. 17: vs. South Florida (W, 104-93)
Dec. 21: vs. Kennesaw State (W, 92-81)
Dec. 29: vs. Yale (W, 102-78)
Jan. 3: vs. Kentucky, 11 a.m., ESPN
Jan. 7: at Vanderbilt, 8 p.m., ESPN2
Jan. 10: vs. Texas, 7 p.m., ESPN
Jan. 13: at Mississippi State, 8 p.m., SEC Network
Jan. 17: at Oklahoma, noon, SEC Network
Jan. 24: vs. Tennessee, 7:30 p.m., ESPN
Jan. 27: vs. Missouri, 8 p.m., SEC Network
Feb. 1: at Florida, noon, ABC
Feb. 4: vs. Texas A&M, 6 p.m., SEC Network
Feb. 7: at Auburn, 3 p.m., TBA
Feb. 11: at Ole Miss, 6 p.m., SEC Network
Feb. 14: vs. South Carolina, 7:30 p.m., SEC Network
Feb. 18: vs. Arkansas, 6 p.m., TBA
Feb. 21: at LSU, 5 p.m., SEC Network
Feb. 25: vs. Mississippi State, TBA
Feb. 28: at Tennessee, TBA
March 3: at Georgia, 5:30 p.m., ESPNews
March 7: vs. Auburn, 7:30 p.m., ESPN

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This article originally appeared on Roll Tide Wire: Alabama basketball odds of beating Kentucky, per ESPN

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