Colorado College's analytics are pretty good. Will that soon turn into more wins?

5 days ago 2

Jan. 8—COLORADO SPRINGS, Colo. — Colorado College coach Kris Mayotte liked a lot of things about his team in the first half of the season.

His team's record? Not so much.

Colorado College enters this weekend's series against No. 4-ranked North Dakota with an 8-9-3 record. The Tigers are seventh in the National Collegiate Hockey Conference standings and buried at No. 34 in the NPI Rankings, which are used to select and seed the NCAA tournament.

There is some hope for the Tigers, though.

Advanced analytics say they've played significantly better than their record and could be poised to go on a second-half run.

If every game reflected even-strength expected goals, the Tigers would be 13-7 right now. The only NCHC team with a larger discrepancy between expected and actual records is St. Cloud State, which should be 15-5 instead of 10-10.

"Our guys have full belief in what this team can do," Mayotte said. "It's not like we played at a high level once every four games in the first half. We stacked weekend after weekend after weekend on top of each other. We understand we didn't get results as consistently as we thought we were playing, but you can't discount that."

Colorado College's expected goals for and expected goals against are both above average. There are 19 total schools that rank above average in both.

That includes UND, which enters this weekend at 16-4 and on an eight-game winning streak.

"Our guys know if they continue to play that way, we can beat anybody, we can outplay anybody," Mayotte said. "It's just sticking to it. They have recent experience that says we're a really good hockey team."

Mayotte was not pleased with Colorado College's first series back from Christmas break, though. The Tigers were swept by Augustana in Sioux Falls, S.D., last weekend.

"We have to use this past weekend as a learning experience," Mayotte said. "We didn't play like a good hockey team. We didn't show up. We have to take that personally and make sure it doesn't happen again."

UND coach Dane Jackson said Colorado College passes the eye test.

"I feel they're a better team than their record," Jackson said. "I know we've always really respected their program. We've had trouble playing in their rink sometimes. They check extremely well. They clog up the neutral zone well. Their goaltending has always been excellent. We're going in there knowing it's going to be a hard battle."

Team xG win % Actual win % Diff

ASU .318 .523 +.205

Miami .450 .600 +.150

Omaha .250 .350 +.100

UMD .625 .700 +.075

UND .725 .800 +.075

DU .667 .619 -.048

WMU .800 .700 -.100

CC .650 .475 -.175

SCSU .750 .500 -.250

Colorado College has dealt with a couple of significant injuries this season.

Top defenseman Max Burkholder suffered an injury in Game 3 that's expected to keep him out for the rest of the season. The Tigers replaced Burkholder with defenseman Mats Lindgren over Christmas break. Lindgren, a fourth-round pick of the Buffalo Sabres, played one professional season in 2024-25 with Wheeling in the ECHL.

The Tigers also have been without top-line center Owen Beckner since Nov. 29.

Mayotte said Beckner was somewhere between questionable and doubtful for this weekend's series against UND.

Beckner was supposed to play for the U.S. Collegiate Selects at the Spengler Cup in Davos, Switzerland, last month, but had to miss the tournament because of injury.

UND arrived in Colorado Springs on Thursday night, set for its first road series since St. Cloud State on Dec. 5-6. It is the first time UND has been on an airplane trip since Clarkson in October. That's also the last time UND lost a road game.

The Fighting Hawks are 7-1 on the road this season and have won six in a row away from Ralph Engelstad Arena.

"I think guys always look forward to it," Jackson said about road trips. "It's a bonding experience to get on the road and a little harder place to play. I think the guys look forward to getting a little time together. I think it's really good for our team to get in those environments and be together and hopefully play a real simple, strong, hard, greasy road game. It's hard to win on the road in our league. It brings the guys together in a great way."

Colorado College's home venue, Ed Robson Arena, has been open for five seasons.

UND swept the Tigers 5-2 and 4-1 in its first trip to Robson Arena in 2021-22.

The Fighting Hawks and Tigers played back-to-back overtime games in 2022-23. UND won the opener 2-1 on a Jackson Blake overtime goal. The teams tied 0-0 in the series finale. UND won the shootout.

Then, UND had a disastrous series in its last trip to Colorado Springs, losing 7-1 and 6-2. Zaccharya Wisdom scored four times in the series opener.

"They're honestly really hard to play against because of their structure," UND assistant captain Dylan James said. "Lot of respect for them."

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