BYU vs Kansas State Preview: Two of Nation’s Leading Scorers Face Off

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After a 12-day layoff, BYU begins Big 12 play Saturday when they travel to Manhattan to play Kansas State. BYU’s first four games are the softest stretch of Big 12 play, but Kansas State on paper is the toughest of the four and will really test BYU’s defense. The Wildcats are a Quad One game for BYU and would be BYU’s fourth Q1 win of the season.

The game tips off at 11:30am MT on CBS.

BYU and Kansas State by the Numbers

Kansas State KenPom: 76

NET ranking: 61

Record: 9-4

Best Wins: Cal (H), Tulsa (H), Mississippi State (N), Creighton (A)

Losses: Nebraska (N), Indiana (A), Bowling Green (H), Seton Hall (H)

AP Ranking: N/A

BYU KenPom: 10

NET Ranking: 9

Record: 12-1

AP Ranking: 10

KenPom Prediction: BYU 90, KSU 82 — BYU 78% win probability

Point Spread: BYU -14.5

Point Total: 171.5

Kansas State Overview

The Wildcats are a dangerous offensive team. They have one of the fastest tempos in college basketball and have five players averaging double figures. They had some solid wins in non-conference play, but a four-game losing streak in late November/early December that included a head scratching home loss to Bowling Green.

K-State’s offense when its humming is one of the best in the country. They shoot 40% from three (#9 nationally), score in transition, crash the glass, and have a bucket getter in All-American guard PJ Haggerty. They can be turnover prone at times, don’t get to the foul line a ton outside of Haggerty, and have struggled when Haggerty’s shooting is inefficient. But by and large this offense is really good.

Defensively is where K State has struggled. Their KenPom defensive efficiency is 119 nationally, which is bottom three in the Big 12. They don’t do anything glaringly bad statistically but don’t have any clear strengths either. At times the Wildcats have struggled with effort and focus on that end of the floor and have stretches where they are awful defensively. Their last game, for example, against 3-11 UL Monroe they scored 94 points but gave up 85 points and allowed 34 free throw attempts. One of Kansas State’s biggest issues has been their best offensive and best defensive lineups aren’t the same. 6-foot-9 freshman Elias Rapieque starts and gives good length on the perimeter, but isn’t a scoring threat. 6-foot-1 David Castillo is KSU’s sixth man and second leading scorer and gives the Wildcats a really dangerous offensively lineup with five scoring threats, but Kansas State doesn’t have much length on the perimeter when they make that switch in the lineup. If Kansas State doesn’t tighten up defensively then BYU has the ability to blow this game open.

Players to Watch

PJ Haggerty, Guard — The Memphis transfer is in the midst of his third consecutive season averaging 20+ points. The 6-foot-4 guard is third nationally in scoring (22.9 ppg) behind only Cam Boozer and AJ Dybantsa. Haggerty also leads Kansas State with 4.5 assists per game. Haggerty is a multi-faceted scorer who can single-handedly take over a game. He is a ball-dominant guard that primarily likes to get to the rim. Haggerty averages nearly 8 FTA per game and 15.6 field goal attempts. He averages just over 3 three-point attempts per game and shoots 37% from distance. Haggerty has upped his efficiency this season, shooting a career high 51% from the field. Haggerty will get his shots, but the team struggles when he isn’t efficient. The Wildcats have lost three of the four games when Haggerty shoots less than 40% from the field. I imagine Kennard Davis and AJ Dybantsa will get a lot of time guarding Haggerty to see if their length disrupts him.

Abdi Bashir, Wing — The 6-foot-7 sharpshooter is one of the best shooters in the country. Bashir averages 12.8 ppg and shoots a blistering 48% from three on 8 attempts per game. He’s made at least least 5 threes in 5 games this season, including 26 points and 7 threes in a narrow loss to Nebraska. After Haggerty, staying on Bashir on the perimeter will be a top priority for BYU’s defense.

Nate Johnson, Guard — Johnson is fourth on the team in scoring (12.3 ppg) and is another lethal outside shooter at 44.7%. At 6-foot-3, Johnson also leads the team with 2.2 steals per game.

Khamari McGriff, Forward/Center — The 6-foot-9, 235 pounds big man is Kansas State’s starting center. He averages 10 ppg per game and is a solid rim protector and good on the offensive glass. Is is just 1-3 from three on the year, but is a strong presence in the interior. McGriff has struggled with conditioning and foul trouble various points; he averages 20 minutes per game.

David Castillo, Guard — KSU’s sixth man is a 6-foot-1 microwave off the bench. Castillo is second on the team in scoring (13.1 ppg) and shoots 39% from three. Castillo can be a liability defensively, but he makes the offense really dangerous when he’s on the floor.

Prediction

The 14.5-point opening spread is big. That is a big variance from the KenPom spread of 8 points. Those numbers are typically fairly close unless there is an injury. Either there is a major K-State injury the public doesn’t know about or Vegas doesn’t trust K-State’s defense at all, which is semi-warranted.

Kansas State is dangerous and is the highest ceiling offensive team BYU will have seen so far. Haggerty can take over a game by himself and he’s surrounded by elite shooters. I can see a game where BYU comes out slow after a long break, isn’t locked in on shooters, and Kansas State pulls the upset. Getting off to a better start and stronger first half will be important.

I’ll take BYU for a few reasons. One, I trust BYU’s defense more than Kansas State’s. BYU has more length and a real rim protector in Keba, and when either team really needs a stop I trust BYU more. BYU has struggled most against teams that are big and physical inside, and while K State has some solid bigs, they aren’t a team that will bully BYU inside. I think Kansas State’s lack of perimeter length will also really hurt them, and they’ll have to decide if they go with a longer lineup that sacrifices scoring or their more potent offensive lineup that sacrifices defense. K State will put up points, but if this comes down to a close game at the end I trust BYU more to get stops. If Kansas State has some of the defensive lapses they’ve had at multiple points of the year this could turn into a BYU runaway.

This has some ingredients for an upset in BYU’s first true road game of the regular season, but ultimately I think BYU is more reliable as a whole and gets the win in an up-tempo, high scoring game.

Prediction: BYU 95, Kansas State 88

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