Bills playoff picture: Updated seeding scenarios for Buffalo in 2026 NFL bracket

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Bills playoff picture: Updated seeding scenarios for Buffalo in 2026 NFL bracket originally appeared on The Sporting News. Add The Sporting News as a Preferred Source by clicking here.

With Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs missing the playoffs, many pointed to the Buffalo Bills as the natural favorites in the AFC. If the Bills are going to fulfill those expectations, they are going to have to get comfortable winning on the road.

The Bills' streak of five consecutive AFC East titles was snapped by the New England Patriots, meaning Buffalo will start the playoffs on the road and potentially stay there throughout its run if it advances past the wild-card round.

What the Bills didn't know entering Week 18 was where their playoff journey would start. They lost ground in the race for seeding with their Week 17 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles, but entered the final week of the regular season hoping to earn a 12th win and make one last leap.

Here's what you need to know about the Bills' playoff outlook and who they might play in the wild-card round.

MORE WEEK 18 NFL:

NFL playoff bracket 2026

Here's a look at the current potential initial matchups for this year's playoffs:

Bills playoff picture

The Bills enter Week 18 as the No. 7 seed in the AFC, though they already clinched a playoff berth.

Seed	Team	Record
1	Denver Broncos*	13-3
2	New England Patriots*	13-3
3	Jacksonville Jaguars*	12-4
4	Pittsburgh Steelers	9-7
5	Houston Texans*	11-5
6	Los Angeles Chargers*	11-5
7	Buffalo Bills*	11-5
8	Indianapolis Colts - eliminated	8-8
9	Baltimore Ravens	8-8
10	Miami Dolphins - eliminated	7-9
11	Cincinnati Bengals - eliminated	6-10
12	Kansas City Chiefs - eliminated	6-10
13	Cleveland Browns - eliminated	4-12
14	Tennessee Titans - eliminated	3-13
15	New York Jets - eliminated	3-13
16	Las Vegas Raiders - eliminated	2-14

*=clinched playoff spot

Through 16 games, the Bills found themselves on the losing end of a three-team tiebreaker with the Houston Texans and Los Angeles Chargers. With the Chargers resting key starters against the Denver Broncos on Sunday, the Bills' hope is they can at least slide up to the No. 6 seed. If Buffalo ends up in a tie with the Texans, Houston would have the seeding advantage thanks to a head-to-head win.

The Bills can only be seeded in the No. 5, 6 or 7 spots, but their opponent is difficult to predict because of potential movement among the top three seeds.

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Bills clinching scenarios

One side of the Bills' seeding outlook is simple: if they lose to the New York Jets on Sunday, they will be the No. 7 seed in the AFC (though their opponent would still be determined by other games).

If the Bills win, they are not guaranteed to rise above the No. 7 seed but would be guaranteed to rise if one or both of the Texans or Chargers lose. Because the Bills, Texans and Chargers all enter with an identical 11-5 record, Buffalo can jump either team simply by finishing with a better record.

The Chargers are resting Justin Herbert and other key starters against the Broncos. If they lose and the Bills win, Buffalo would be assured of at least the No. 6 seed.

The Bills can technically rise even if the Chargers and Texans both win, but they would need the Jaguars to lose as well so Houston can win the AFC South.

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