2026 NFL offseason preview: Indianapolis Colts' challenges include Daniel Jones decision, no 1st-round pick

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The NFL offseason has begun, and Yahoo Sports is previewing the coming months for all 32 teams, from free agency through the draft and more.

Indianapolis Colts

2025 season record: 8-9 (o 7.5 wins), third in AFC South, missed playoffs, fifth in DVOA

Overview

It would have been nearly impossible to think the Colts’ 2025 season would end up here after how it started. Through the first 10 weeks of the season, when Indianapolis had its bye, it was lapping the rest of the league on offense. The Colts led the NFL in points per drive (3.17) and had scored on 57% of their drives. Daniel Jones was playing great, Jonathan Taylor was in the running for Offensive Player of the Year, and Shane Steichen was a lock for Coach of the Year.

Indianapolis, sensing an open path in the AFC, traded two first-round draft picks for Sauce Gardner. The Colts did not win a game after that. Jones had dealt with a fracture in his leg and then tore his Achilles in Week 14. Gardner missed time, as did Charvarious Ward at the other corner spot.

The Colts were first in point differential through the first 10 weeks of the season, and 28th from Week 12 on.

With Jones injured and signed to only a one-year deal, plus having no first-round pick, the Colts find themselves in a much tougher offseason situation than anyone could have imagined midway through November.

Cap/cuts outlook

Indianapolis has around $33 million in effective salary cap space, according to Over The Cap, which is the 10th-highest figure in the league. The Colts could clear some cap space by restructuring DeForest Buckner and Bernhard Raimann. That could open as much as $23 million between the two. Michael Pittman Jr. could be a surprising cut. Pending free agent Alec Pierce turned into a bigger piece of the passing game, along with Josh Downs and tight end Tyler Warren. Pittman has a $29 million cap hit for 2026 and the Colts would save $24 million if they moved on for the final year of his contract.

Charvarious Ward mentioned that he had spoken to his family about the potential for retirement. The 29-year-old cornerback who signed with Indianapolis last offseason has dealt with concussion issues and suffered multiple head injuries this season.

Key pending free agents

QB Daniel Jones
WR Alec Pierce
RT Braden Smith
S Nick Cross

The Jones decision is going to loom over the offseason. At the trade deadline, parting with two first-round picks showed the Colts had confidence in Jones leading the team in future seasons. Most reporting suggests that is still the case, but the progress on his recovery will be important. Pierce became the go-to receiver and downfield threat for this offense. He led the team in receiving yards, yards per route run and explosive receptions. Cross has turned into a top safety with the versatility to play deep, in the box and in the slot. He was second among safeties in Defeats, per FTN.

Positional needs

Edge
Linebacker
Cornerback

The Colts were 23rd in pressure rate, while Laiatu Latu made up for 25.7% of the team’s pressures. Bringing in a second pass rusher could help the Colts immensely in shoring up the defensive line. Indianapolis was 27th in DVOA against tight ends. Adding a linebacker who could be more versatile in coverage would open up the middle of the defense. The Colts were also 23rd in DVOA on passes to the short middle of the field. Both of the Colts’ top two linebackers were in the bottom half of the position in yards allowed per coverage snap.

At full strength, cornerback should not be an issue. But if Charvarious Ward steps away, there’s a clear weakness on the outside across from Sauce Gardner. That was supposed to be what Gardner covered up. Indianapolis was 12th in DVOA against No. 1 receivers, but 21st against No. 2s.

2026 NFL Draft picks

2nd round
3rd round
4th round
5th round
6th round (projected compensatory)
7th round
7th round (projected compensatory)

Good draft fit

Cashius Howell, edge, Texas A&M

The Colts don’t have a first-round pick, which hurts in addressing their areas of need. But Howell stands a good chance of being on the board when they make their first Day 2 pick, and he's the type of explosive, versatile pass rusher who can complement Laiatu Latu.

What could move the fantasy needle in 2026?

Daniel Jones and Alec Pierce free agency

The Colts enter the offseason with plenty of salary cap space but have two big offensive free agents to consider. Daniel Jones is a tricky evaluation after he tore his Achilles tendon in November. The team likely still wants to retain him and he could even be a franchise tag candidate. Alec Pierce had a breakout season in 2025 and ended up being the Colts’ most important wideout in a really good room. While they’d love to retain him, he could end up being the best wide receiver on the market. He has the size, speed and true X-receiver skills that don’t come available often. A sneaky bidding war could ensue and the Colts may end up losing out on that one, especially with right tackle Braden Smith also up for free agency. The Colts' first moves of the offseason will be the biggest. — Matt Harmon

Betting nugget

The Colts (barely) went over their preseason win total of 7.5, as Indianapolis — once 8-2 and a potential Super Bowl contender — lost its final seven games of the season. — Ben Fawkes

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