2026 NFL offseason preview: Dallas Cowboys are a Super Bowl contender — if they can re-sign George Pickens and fix defense

4 days ago 2

The NFL offseason has begun, and Yahoo Sports is previewing the coming months for all 32 teams, from free agency through the draft and more.

Dallas Cowboys

2025 season record: 7-9-1 (u 7.5 wins), second in NFC East, missed playoffs, 22nd in DVOA

Overview

So many things worked out for the Cowboys. Brian Schottenheimer, perhaps the most scrutinized head coaching hire last offseason, was a net positive. Trading for George Pickens was the steal of the offseason and benefited both Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb. The Cowboys’ run game improved with the hire of Klayton Adams as offensive coordinator. The Dallas offense led the league in yards per game and was top five in EPA per play. But none of that could overcome Dallas’ biggest move of the offseason: trading away Micah Parsons.

Without Parsons, the Cowboys missed the impact of a top-tier pass rusher. Despite Jerry Jones’ insistence that Parsons' freestyling negatively impacted the run defense, the Cowboys were one of the league’s worst defenses the entire season and ultimately fired coordinator Matt Eberflus. Due to the struggles, Dallas traded for Quinnen Williams at the deadline. Williams is a fantastic player and immediately made an impact for the Cowboys, but it cost a 2026 second-round draft pick, leaving Dallas with no Day 2 picks this year, and a 2027 first-round pick.

The offense wasn’t enough to make up for the defensive deficiencies and the Cowboys missed the playoffs in a season when playoff spots felt more wide open than ever.

Cap/cuts outlook

Dallas has -$46.4 million in effective salary cap space, according to Over The Cap, the third-least in the league. This is common for Dallas, a team that signs big contracts late with high salaries that can be restructured into signing bonuses to clear cap space in future years. The Cowboys can open up nearly $50 million by restructuring the contracts of Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb. Moving on from Kenny Clark, a key piece of the Parsons trade, according to Jerry Jones, would open up $21 million in cap space. The Cowboys could also extend Clark and lower that 2026 figure.

Key pending free agents

WR George Pickens
S Donovan Wilson
RB Javonte Williams
K Brandon Aubrey (RFA)

Just about everything about the Pickens trade was a success for Dallas, outside of not making the playoffs. Pickens had his best season and will likely be an All-Pro receiver. He led the team in target share and was third among all players in receiving yards. At worst, the franchise tag is in play, but it would be surprising to see the Cowboys let him hit the market. The other big name here is Aubrey, who is a restricted free agent. Does Dallas use a first-round tender on a kicker? Is a second-round tender enough to deter outside offers for one of the best kickers in the league?

Positional needs

Edge
Linebacker
Secondary

Take your pick for the defensive position the Cowboys need to improve. You don’t finish last in defensive DVOA by being loaded. Start at edge, where the loss of Micah Parsons was immediately felt. Dallas was seventh in pressure rate but 10th in blitz rate. Much of the pressure came from the interior with Osa Odighizuwa, Kenny Clark and eventually, Quinnen Williams. Williams had 32 pressures as a Cowboy, which ended up fifth on the team.

Dallas linebackers struggled throughout the year while the defense played 32% of its snaps in base personnel, the 13th-highest rate in the league. There wasn’t a reliable player in coverage and the run fits were inconsistent. DeMarvion Overshown was rusty in his return from knee injury, but getting him a full offseason to recover should bring back his pre-injury potential. Still, at least one linebacker will be needed to play with him.

Dallas’ secondary was a revolving mess. The team already released Trevon Diggs, who was in and out of the lineup and was one of the worst cornerbacks by adjusted yards allowed per coverage snap while he was on the field. Other bets on injured and inconsistent players did not pay off. DaRon Bland played 72% of the defensive snaps but no other corner played more than 45%. The Cowboys were last in EPA per play against the pass.

2026 NFL Draft picks

1st round, pick No. 12
1st round (GB)
4th round
5th round
5th round (projected compensatory)
5th round (projected compensatory)
7th round (NYG)
7th round (KC)

Good draft fit

Avieon Terrell, CB, Clemson

The Cowboys need to revamp their secondary as much as anything, and Terrell is fast, scrappy and can stay in the hip pocket of wideouts despite below-average size.

What could move the fantasy needle in 2026?

Retain George Pickens

Pretty simple: the Cowboys can’t allow George Pickens to hit the open market. Dallas is currently over the cap by a significant amount, but can create plenty of room via cuts and restructures to star players like Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb. I’d be stunned if Pickens plays anywhere else next season, whether they come to an agreement on an extension or he’s retained with the franchise tag. — Matt Harmon

Betting nugget

It was an up-and-down season for the Cowboys, who finished 7-9-1 straight up but struggled in the role of a favorite, going 2-7 against the spread. Dallas was the NFL’s best team to the over at 12-4-1. — Ben Fawkes

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