2026 NFL offseason preview: Atlanta Falcons' new regime has a lot to figure out, starting at QB

4 days ago 2

The NFL offseason has begun, and Yahoo Sports is previewing the coming months for all 32 teams, from free agency through the draft and more.

Atlanta Falcons

2025 season record: 8-9, (o 7.5 wins), third in NFC South, missed playoffs, 19th in DVOA

Overview

The Falcons won the final game of the regular season to reach a three-way tie in record at the top of the NFC South. But Atlanta’s win sent Carolina to the playoffs, while the Falcons officially finished third in the division and fired head coach Raheem Morris and general manager Terry Fontenot.

The issue with Atlanta over the past two seasons was a clear misevaluation of where the team was and how to build the roster around it. Signing Kirk Cousins and then drafting Michael Penix Jr. might have put the Falcons 0-for-2 at quarterback. Penix, with a long injury history, tore his ACL in November. Trading a 2026 first-round draft pick for James Pearce Jr., who granted might finish in the top five of Defensive Rookie of the Year, was shortsighted at the time and looks worse now. On top of that, there was just weird stuff going on with the Falcons. Wide receivers coach Ike Hilliard was fired midseason as a scapegoat for offensive struggles. Darnell Mooney suffered a broken collarbone in training camp, which wasn’t disclosed publicly until November.

A four-game win streak wasn’t enough to salvage the season. Neither were the individual bright spots, like Drake London and Bijan Robinson. Even the defense impressed in stretches, but it was never enough to make the Falcons feel like a franchise with a coherent plan and path forward.

Cap/cuts outlook

According to Over The Cap, the Falcons have approximately -$14 million in effective salary cap space heading into 2026, which ranks in the bottom 10 rate of the league. The Falcons and Kirk Cousins agreed to a modification in the quarterback’s contract to push back the date of his 2027 guarantee until the third day of the league year, so his future will be decided before that date. It’s likely Cousins will be a post-June 1 cut, which would free up about only $2 million in 2026 cap space. A Darnell Mooney release would open up another $8 million in space.

To get cap compliant, the Falcons have a few options in restructures that could include A.J. Terrell, Jessie Bates III, Chris Lindstrom and Jake Matthews.

Pending free agents

TE Kyle Pitts
RB Tyler Allgeier
LB Kaden Elliss
OL Elijah Wilkinson
DL David Onyemata
Edge Arnold Ebiketie
Edge Leonard Floyd

Pitts had a career year and led the team in targets and yards, though Drake London surpassed Pitts in rate stats, but missed games. A franchise tag could be on the table for Pitts, given how the tight end figure is so much lower than the tag at receiver. But in a salary cap crunch and a new deal for London upcoming, Pitts might be a luxury a new regime decides against paying. Allgeier is in a similar boat, an efficient runner in a tandem with Bijan Robinson, but it’s increasingly difficult to have a second-contract back splitting carries with what might be the best running back in the league.

Positional needs

Quarterback
Cornerback
Wide receiver

If Kirk Cousins is not on the roster and Michael Penix Jr. is not ready to start the season — or maybe if he is — the Falcons need someone to play quarterback. Penix and Cousins had nearly identical efficiency stats for the season but much of that comes down to the availability of Drake London. Penix had London on the field for almost all of his dropbacks, while Cousins had the top receiver for just over a third of his. With London, Cousins had 0.04 EPA per play, as opposed to Penix’s -0.02. Having a reliable second receiver would help whoever the quarterback is and London in 2026. The star-and-everyone-else grouping also appears in the secondary. Young safeties have emerged for the Falcons, and rookie Billy Bowman was fun in the slot before getting injured, but having an outside corner opposite A.J. Terrell would improve the defense.

2026 NFL Draft picks

2nd round
3rd round
4th round
6th round
7th round

Good draft fit

Kelley Jones, CB, Mississippi State

Jones is long, good at the catch point and a willing tackler, traits that project well as CB2 opposite A.J. Terrell. And the best news is he’ll likely be available when the Falcons make their first pick on Day 2.

What could move the fantasy needle in 2026?

Figure out the quarterback spot

Atlanta made two big bets at quarterback in the 2024 offseason and as we head into 2026, I don’t think you can label either as a hit. Perhaps Michael Penix Jr. becomes that guy. However, I’d bet against a new front office and coaching staff hanging their hat on that as their answer, considering the soon-to-be 26-year-old quarterback is still unproven and coming off his third ACL reconstruction. I’m not exactly sure what the path forward is for this team, which lacks a Round 1 selection in the upcoming draft, but I doubt either Penix or Kirk Cousins opens the season as the starting quarterback. — Matt Harmon

Betting nugget

The Falcons barely missed the postseason, finishing at 8-9 in a weak NFC South, but bettors weren’t rewarded for backing Atlanta in games the Falcons were supposed to win. Atlanta went a putrid 2-7 ATS as a favorite. — Ben Fawkes

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